Marseille vs Lorient Prediction for 13 September 2025 - Football

🔊 Will Marseille confirm their status as one of Ligue 1's best home teams? In the fourth round of the French championship, Roberto De Zerbi's side are set to host Lorient, who conceded seven goals to Lille in their last outing. This clash promises to be intense, as the winner could surge up the standings, while the loser risks slipping into the relegation zone. Check out our analysis and prediction for this match in our article.

Head-to-Head

📊 Marseille haven't lost to Lorient since 2015, highlighting a favorable matchup for the "southerners." In their last ten head-to-head encounters, Marseille have secured nine victories.

Olympique Marseille Team Overview

🔵 Marseille have played just one home game in the current league campaign, securing a 5-2 victory over Paris. While their attack seems to be firing on all cylinders and things appear positive, this overlooks their two away matches where Roberto De Zerbi's side struggled significantly, failing to earn any points.

⚪ To recap, Marseille suffered a defeat in their opening away game against Rennes (0-1), and in the third round, they lost to Lyon (0-1). It's worth noting that against Lyon, the "White and Blues" were reduced to ten men from the 29th minute after CJ Egan-Riley was sent off. The stats were naturally in favor of the hosts with possession (58%/42%) and shots on target (6/2), but Lyon only managed to score in the dying moments of the match. Marseille's defense held up well but just couldn't quite see it through!

Lorient Team Overview

🟠 Lorient have been delivering mixed performances this season. At times, Olivier Pantaloni's side look absolutely brilliant on the pitch, dominating their opponents, while other times they deeply disappoint their fans with lackluster defensive play. Let's break it down: in the first round, they suffered a defeat against Auxerre (0-1) despite having 56% possession and an xG of 1.37.

⚫ In their second match of the French championship, Lorient thrashed Rennes at home with a 4-0 victory, only to lose their next home game to Lille by a staggering 1-7 scoreline. The statistics were not in the "Oranges'" favor in that last fixture: shots on target – 2/11, possession – 41/59, expected goals (xG) – 1.16/3.70. Finding patterns in Olivier Pantaloni's team's play is proving to be quite the challenge.

Latest news

Olympique Marseille

📄 On the final day of the summer transfer window, just ahead of their match against Lorient, Marseille made several key signings aimed at strengthening their squad. Notably, they secured Moroccan defender Nayef Aguerd from West Ham for 23 million euros. Another significant addition was the loan acquisition of Danish midfielder Matthew O'Riley from Brighton. To top it off, they also brought in defender Benjamin Pavard on loan from Inter.

🟥 English defender CJ Egan-Riley will miss the match against Lorient due to a red card received in the previous round.

❌ Midfielder Geoffrey Kondogbia's participation in the upcoming match is doubtful after picking up an injury in the first round against Rennes. Additionally, Facundo Medina and Igor Paixão are unlikely to feature as they remain sidelined and have yet to return to full training with the squad.

Lorient

📄 Lorient were active on the final day of the summer transfer window, securing loan deals for two key players: Marseille defender Bamo Meite and Newcastle forward Trevan Sanusi. During the international break, these players likely had the chance to adapt to their new club, and we might see them in the upcoming match.

❌ The participation of Bandiougou Fadiga and Panos Katseris in the upcoming match is doubtful due to injuries. While the Frenchman has yet to feature this season, the Greek has played in all three Ligue 1 matches, albeit not for the full duration. There is no precise information on their current health status.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The upcoming match will be officiated by Thomas Leonard. Over a span of 100 matches, he averages 3.61 yellow cards per game, with 24 fouls. Marseille have averaged 1.6 yellow cards in their last 5 matches, whereas Lorient have averaged 2.8. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Lorient picked up more cautions than Marseille. Considering this data, we suggest betting on the visitors to win in yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

This season in Ligue 1, both Marseille and Lorient have netted 5 goals each (averaging 1.66 per game). However, they have conceded a combined total of 12 goals, indicating a rather porous defense. Their previous two meetings saw a total of 4 and 6 goals scored respectively. Therefore, we recommend betting on over 2.5 total goals in the upcoming match, based on this analysis.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the last seven encounters between Marseille and Lorient, a bet on a corner handicap (-1.5) for the "southerners" has been successful. This season, Marseille have won 21 corners over three matches, while Lorient have managed just 10. Given these figures, a bet on Marseille's corner handicap (-1.5) seems quite reasonable.

Marseille have been somewhat constrained on the road, but on their home turf, they continue to excel, just as in previous seasons. Scoring five goals against Paris further underscores this point. The head-to-head stats against Lorient are overwhelmingly against the visitors, so we believe the hosts will come out on top in the upcoming match – 3-1. Given how inconsistent the "Oranges" are away from home, we suggest betting on Marseille with a -1 handicap.