France vs Iceland Prediction for 10 September 2025 - Football

🔊 How long will Iceland hold onto the top spot in Group D of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? The Scandinavians face a challenging trip to the "Parc des Princes" to take on France, who are the clear favorites in the group. The "Vikings" are likely to contend for the second position with Ukraine, and they have already taken the first step towards that goal by defeating Azerbaijan. France secured a routine win against Ukraine on the road, although without overwhelming their opponents. How will the head-to-head clash between the group leaders unfold? Let's try to predict it with a detailed analysis from our editorial team.

Head-to-Head

📊 Iceland's national team has only participated in major international tournaments twice. This adds a layer of symbolism to the upcoming match, as they have faced France on one of those occasions. Their first encounter was during the sensational Euro 2016 for the "Vikings," where they reached the quarter-finals, stunning England along the way (2-1). However, they couldn't overcome France in the quarters (5-2). The other two encounters occurred during the Euro 2020 qualifiers, with France prevailing on both occasions (4-0 at home and 1-0 away).

France Team Overview

The runners-up of the last World Cup, as well as Euro 2024 and Nations League semifinalists, consistently deliver top-tier football. Nothing short of a victory in their first World Cup 2026 qualifier against Ukraine (2-0) was expected from Didier Deschamps' squad. The French side started the match with intense pressure, which resulted in a goal by Michael Olise as early as the 10th minute. They maintained their momentum throughout the first half, dominating possession with 62% compared to Ukraine's 38%, and allowed their opponents just one shot towards goal with a mere 0.02 xG value. After the break, Ukraine managed to regain some composure, improving their territorial advantage to 44% and raising their expected goals to 1.28 xG, but still conceded late in the game.

Michael Olise earned the Man of the Match title, having scored the winning goal and being highly active in the penalty area with four shots (two on target) and leading in successful passes in the final third (24 out of 28). Kylian Mbappe also found the back of the net, equaling Thierry Henry's scoring record with 51 goals; the next milestone is Olivier Giroud with 57 goals. Liverpool's new signing Hugo Ekitike made his national team debut. However, his appearance was marred by the fact that it was necessitated by Ousmane Dembele's thigh injury, which will sideline the winger at least until October.

Iceland Team Overview

The quarterfinals of Euro 2026 remain Iceland's pinnacle in international tournaments. They also reached the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, but since then, their results have been on the decline. Last year concluded with a third-place finish in their Nations League group, leading to relegation to Division C after the "Vikings" suffered two defeats against Kosovo (1-2; 1-3) in the playoffs. Iceland kicked off their World Cup 2026 qualification campaign with a commanding victory over Azerbaijan (5-0). Arnar Gunnlaugsson's side dominated possession with 71% compared to Azerbaijan's 29%, preventing any shots on target while amassing an impressive 2.6 expected goals.

The emphatic win against Azerbaijan was marred by an injury to Victor Pálsson, who scored the opening goal. The full-back was forced off in the 78th minute, joining Iceland's already crowded injury list, which includes top scorer and captain Ari Óskarsson (five goals in eight games) and defender Aron Gunnarsson. In the absence of Real Sociedad's forward, Köln's newcomer Ísak Jóhannesson stepped up as the key playmaker. The former Fortuna Düsseldorf midfielder, who netted 11 goals in the 2. Bundesliga, showcased his scoring prowess against Azerbaijan with a brace.

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France

🎙 “We could have gained the upper hand a bit earlier in the first half. After that, we had a lapse for four or five minutes. It's worth mentioning, although the main thing is different. It's always better to win, which we achieved,” shared Didier Deschamps, reflecting on the match against Ukraine. The French national team coach didn't forget to mention their upcoming opponent: “On Tuesday, we face the leaders of our group. We have a young team that needs to repeat actions to gain experience and insight. So, I hope we can replicate the result from our last match at the Parc des Princes.”

💰 France are ranked 3rd in the FIFA standings. Moreover, Les Bleus boast the most expensive squad among all national teams worldwide, valued at €1.28 billion. The most valuable players on the transfer market are Kylian Mbappe (€180 million, Real Madrid), Michael Olise (€100 million, Bayern Munich), and Ousmane Dembele (€90 million, PSG).

Iceland

🎙 Iceland's head coach, who had promised a victory against France following their match with Azerbaijan, was more reserved in his comments after the first game. "We were focused on winning, and we succeeded through solid play. I'm very pleased with my team's performance. Despite the scoreline, it required considerable effort," praised Arnar Gunnlaugsson, acknowledging both his players and the opposition.

💰 Iceland are ranked 74th in the FIFA rankings and boast one of the youngest squads, with an average age of 25.7 years. In comparison, their upcoming opponents have an average age of 26.5 years. Moreover, the French squad's transfer value is nearly 17 times that of Iceland's. The "Vikings" have a squad worth €76.35 million. Their most valuable players include Hakon-Arnar Haraldsson (€18 million, Lille), Albert Gudmundsson (€18 million, Fiorentina), and Isak Johannesson (€7 million, Cologne).

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Before the World Cup qualifiers even kicked off, Iceland lost their attacking leader, Orri Óskarsson. It's encouraging that in their match against Azerbaijan, other players stepped up to fill his role, although it's worth noting they are of a different profile (Haraldsson is a winger, Jóhannesson a midfielder). The level of opposition in Paris will be incomparable to the game in Reykjavik. France have kept clean sheets at the Parc des Princes in four consecutive World Cup and European Championship qualifiers. We believe this trend will continue and Iceland will not score.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The number of corners in the match will directly depend on how much Iceland are pushed back towards their goal. In their previous match against Ukraine, the French had an equal number of set pieces at the corner flags, but with all due respect to Iceland, we believe they will face more challenges advancing the ball towards the opponent's goal.

The French squad boasts an impressive number of players taller than 190 cm: Hugo Ekitike, Marcus Thuram, Khephren Thuram, and Ibrahima Konaté. In the absence of Ousmane Dembélé, the "Blues" might rely on good old set pieces to penetrate the visitors' penalty area. Our sense is that the hosts will have a significant advantage in this aspect. Our bet: France to win on corners with a -4 handicap.

The odds for France from various bookmakers are approaching even money, with a staggering difference compared to their upcoming opponent—over a 25-fold disparity in the odds. Given these circumstances, it makes sense to look at additional match events. Statistically, "Les Bleus" have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in six of their last seven World Cup and European Championship qualifiers. The match against Ukraine further highlighted Didier Deschamps' reluctance to push his players to the limit offensively—after a strong first half, the French were less eager to press forward.

Concerns about a high-scoring game from the hosts are heightened by Doué's underwhelming form against Ukraine, leading to his substitution at halftime. The situation is compounded by Ousmane Dembélé's injury, likely paving the way for Hugo Ekitike to step in. Yes, his remarkable debut at Liverpool is still fresh in memory, but there he played as a central forward. While a home victory seems almost certain, we suggest capitalizing on their lineup issues and predict that France will score fewer than 3.5 goals. We anticipate "Les Bleus" winning with a scoreline of 3-0.