Israel vs Italy Prediction for 9 September 2025 - Football

🔊 Can Italy catch up with Israel in the race for a spot in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? To do so, they must secure a win in their upcoming clash. Otherwise, the Azzurri might miss out on the World Cup once again. Currently, there are three points separating the two teams, but Israel has played one more match. This gives Israel a great opportunity to extend their lead over one of the favorites in Group I. The upcoming match will take place on neutral ground at the "Nagyerdei" Stadium in Debrecen. As a result, the nominal visitors are considered the favorites, but we'll explore various scenarios to make an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 In the 21st century, these rivals have clashed four times, with the Italians emerging victorious on each occasion. Their most recent encounter was last year in the Nations League, where the "Squadra Azzurra" edged out a narrow away win (2-1). Although they couldn't keep a clean sheet at home, their victory was far more decisive (4-1), with defender Giovanni Di Lorenzo stealing the spotlight by scoring twice.

In 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matchups, both teams found the net. Given their recent high-scoring games, a bet on both teams to score (yes) seems worth considering.

Israel Team Overview

The Israel national team might not even rank among Europe's mid-tier squads. However, they boast some solid attacking players. As a result, their matches in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers have been among the highest-scoring. No game has seen fewer than three goals. In this context, the lowest-scoring encounter was against Estonia, who quickly took the lead, but Israel managed to secure a comeback victory (2-1).

Their only defeat came at the hands of Norway (2-4). Following that, they defeated Estonia again (3-1) and routed Moldova (4-0). Standout players for Israel include Manor Solomon (Villarreal) and Oscar Gloukh (Ajax), both of whom switched clubs during the summer transfer window, as well as Tai Baribo (Philadelphia), who netted 16 goals in MLS in 2025. All three made their mark in the match against Moldova. There was some doubt about Eli Dasa's participation, as he's currently without a club and training independently. However, the right-back position was so problematic that the former Dynamo Moscow player was indispensable in the starting lineup.

Italy Team Overview

Luciano Spalletti had long dreamed of managing the Italian national team, and he achieved that goal. However, he inherited a generation that lacked top-tier talent, and as a result, he couldn't deliver significant success. Recently, he struggled to motivate his squad, and following a heavy 3-0 defeat to Norway in the current tournament, the federation decided it was time for a change. The 2-0 victory over Moldova marked Spalletti's final game in charge of the Azzurri.

Gennaro Gattuso has taken over as the new head coach, despite having a coaching career that's been less than stellar. He's known more for his motivational skills than tactical prowess. Perhaps that's exactly what the current Italian squad needed. His debut came against Estonia. The first half ended goalless, but a stern halftime talk from Gattuso had the desired effect. The Italians went on to score five unanswered goals, with two coming from Mateo Retegui, who is now playing in the Saudi Arabian league this season. This victory was their largest in four years.

Latest news

Israel

🎙 Israel midfielder Oscar Gloukh shared his thoughts on the victory over Moldova: “I believe we came very well-prepared. Everything we planned in training before the match came to fruition. We enjoyed ourselves on the pitch, and in the end, the result justified itself. What's Moldova's weakness? We focus on ourselves first and not the opponent. We performed incredible feats, and this could have happened against any opponent, whether it's Italy, Moldova, or Estonia. We came to showcase our skills in every game.”

✅ Israel are preparing for the match with a full squad.

Italy

🎙 Italy defender Alessandro Bastoni shared his thoughts on playing under Gennaro Gattuso: “I never played in a team with Gattuso, but I can imagine what it was like! He instilled so much determination and perseverance in us. There were a couple of slaps too. Maybe we needed that to really wake up. I think we needed it lately.”

✅ Italy are preparing for the match with a full squad.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Slavko Vincic from Slovenia. Last season, he officiated nine matches in the national league, averaging 3.67 yellow cards per game. This season, he has presided over two matches and has been even more lenient, issuing a total of five cautions. In the last Nations League campaign, Vincic officiated four games, where he averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match.

Looking at the stats over the past year, Italy have a higher average of yellow cards (1.9 compared to 1.4). Their opponents tend to receive more cautions on average. The same goes for Israel. Both teams recently played matches with no more than three yellow cards issued. Therefore, betting on total yellow cards under 3.5 seems justified.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

We've noted that Israel's matches in the current campaign have been quite high-scoring. Interestingly, four years ago, they displayed a similar trend during the World Cup 2022 qualifiers. In 12 consecutive qualifying matches, at least three goals were scored. After Italy's five-goal performance, it seems likely that the upcoming match will also see plenty of goals. Hence, we suggest betting on total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Italy have the edge in corners over the past year, averaging 4.7 compared to Israel's 4. In matches involving Italy, there are an average of 10.3 corners, while Israel's games see about 9.7. Notably, in six out of their last seven home games, Israel had at least nine corners. Therefore, it makes sense to bet on total corners over 8.5.

Italy are the favorites heading into this matchup, buoyed by their performance against Estonia. However, Israel are expected to put up a stronger fight, especially as the Azzurri won't have the same home advantage as in Bergamo. Our prediction is a narrow victory for the visitors with a scoreline of 2-1.

The Israeli team is known for their attacking style, capable of both creating and converting chances, although their defense raises more questions. Italy, on the other hand, maintain a certain balance, but switching to a formation with two central defenders might affect their defense. Thus, our key bet is on over 2.5 goals, particularly since this has been the outcome in Israel's last 12 World Cup qualifying matches.