Armenia vs Portugal Prediction for 7 September 2025 - Football

🔊 How will Portugal fare in their first match after winning the Nations League? Cristiano Ronaldo and his squad are set to travel to Armenia for their opening fixture in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, taking place at Vazgen Sargsyan Stadium in Yerevan. For the hosts, this marks their first game under a new manager, as the previous coach lasted just four matches, each ending in a disheartening defeat for the local fans. Can the Armenians redeem themselves in front of their supporters, or will the Portuguese secure a routine victory as reigning Nations League champions? We'll evaluate the odds and potential outcomes in our editorial prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams have previously faced each other during the qualification rounds for major international tournaments, most recently in the Euro 2016 qualifiers. Portugal triumphed in both encounters, winning 1-0 at home and 3-2 away. However, the clash in Yerevan was far from straightforward—after a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick, Portugal had a player sent off and nearly squandered their lead.

Armenia Team Overview

Following their Euro 2024 qualification, Armenia's defense, which was already shaky, deteriorated further. During the European Championship qualifiers and the subsequent Nations League, the team's performance was consistent, with a goal difference of -3. However, in the promotion playoffs for League B, their defense completely fell apart. Armenia faced off against neighbors Georgia, who gave them no chance (0:3; 1:6). This collapse could be attributed to the appointment of a new coach right before the crucial promotion matches. After such results, the federation gave the coach an opportunity for redemption in two friendly matches. Unfortunately, these only worsened the situation. Ultimately, for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the team was prepared by former Pyunik Yerevan coach Egishe Melikyan.

Portugal Team Overview

Under Roberto Martinez, Portugal's fortunes steadily improved. After qualifying for Euro 2024 with a perfect record, they reached the quarter-finals of the tournament, only to be edged out by France in a penalty shootout. However, their Nations League campaign was far more successful, suffering just one defeat throughout the competition—against Denmark in the first playoff match (0-1). They bounced back in the return leg, securing a 5-2 victory after extra time. The semi-final win over Germany (2-1) and a triumphant final against Spain (2-2; 5-3 on penalties) are now part of history: Cristiano Ronaldo, at 40, claimed his third international trophy.

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Armenia

📌 The Armenian national team is primarily composed of players from the local and Russian leagues. The standout among them is arguably Eduard Spertsyan from Krasnodar, who attracted significant interest from Southampton this summer. In the current Russian Premier League campaign, the midfielder has tallied 4 goals and 8 assists over 7 rounds. He has consistently demonstrated a high level of performance for four consecutive seasons, netting over 10 goals in each of the previous three. Armenia also boasts several players from European leagues: Ranos Grant-Leon (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Nair Tiknizyan (Red Star Belgrade), and Tigran Barseghyan (Slovan Bratislava).

❌ The national team bid farewell to its long-time captain, defender Varazdat Haroyan, who retired following the friendly matches in June. Additionally, they are missing another seasoned defender, Hovhannes Hambardzumyan, as Yeghishe Melikyan opted not to call him up due to a lack of playing time at his local club, Noah. Another setback is the loss of naturalized Argentine Norberto Briasco, who plays in Argentina's top division; the forward is sidelined with a muscle injury.

Portugal

🔗 The national team roster includes all the heroes from past years, such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, Rúben Dias, and Diogo Costa. Notably, João Félix and Palhinha deserve a mention—they haven't featured much for the national team in the Nations League and had fallen off the radar at their previous clubs (Chelsea and Bayern). However, summer transfers have helped them regain peak form.

🎙 Recently dismissed from Fenerbahçe, José Mourinho has expressed his desire to manage the Portuguese national team in the future: “I haven't worked in Portugal since 2004, and I don't think my country would accept me coaching any national team other than ours. My destiny in international football is to lead Portugal at the World Cup. People need to understand that I am a professional and can coach other teams, but only those with which I have a connection. Brazil, obviously, due to the historical ties between our countries; England, because it's my home; Italy, where I worked for several years; but my first experience with a national team should be in my country.”

❌ Although the Portuguese approach the qualification matches with an almost full-strength squad, a few players who came off the bench in crucial Nations League playoff matches couldn't make it to the team. Winger Rafael Leão, who was injured in AC Milan's season opener, and defender Nélson Semedo (Fenerbahçe)—who suffered a muscle injury in the Champions League qualifying return leg against Benfica—will be absent.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

In their last 10 matches, both teams have posted nearly identical goal averages, with Portugal slightly ahead at 3.3 compared to 3. Notably, the visitors have a significant advantage in second-half goals, averaging 2.2 against 1.1. As for Armenia, they have conceded in the second half in their last four consecutive World Cup and European Championship qualifiers. We believe that Roberto Martinez's strategic substitutions during the game in Yerevan could influence the outcome, much like Conceição and Trincão did in the Nations League playoffs against Germany and Denmark. Editorial prediction: The second half will be more productive than the first.

🚩 Corner Prediction

An intriguing pattern emerges for Portugal in away matches—they haven't been particularly active near their opponent's corner flags, registering fewer than 7.5 corners in 7 of their last 8 games. However, when considering home matches as well, it becomes apparent that against teams employing a low defensive block, the number of set-pieces increases significantly. This was evident against Scotland, Georgia, and Slovenia (with no fewer than 11 corners), where Portugal's possession approached 70%. We anticipate a similar scenario in the upcoming match, so we'll go with Portugal's total corners over 7.5.

Roberto Martinez's team are in excellent form, and it's no surprise they have a twenty-fold edge in odds over Armenia. After their Nations League triumph, this disparity should be expected, particularly in matches against lower-tier teams. The hosts' situation is further complicated not only by a coaching change but also by defensive personnel losses. We foresee a result close to a rout, though not quite reaching that level—Portugal have scored more than 3.5 goals only once in their last ten World Cup and European Championship qualifiers. Nonetheless, this should suffice for a comfortable 3-0 victory for them. A bet on Portugal to win with a -2 handicap looks promising.