Italy vs Estonia Prediction for 6 September 2025 - Football

🔊 What will Italy's first match under Gennaro Gattuso look like? The patience of the Italian federation has run thin after the national team's relatively weak performance in the Nations League. The final straw was a heavy defeat to Norway at the start of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Currently, both future opponents are level on points, but Estonia have played two more matches. Among these was a narrow loss to Norway (0-1). You could say that in their head-to-head against Italy's conquerors, Estonia fared better than the "Azzurri," at least in terms of the scoreline. Will this result remain just a pleasant bonus for the visitors, or can they put up a respectable fight at the "Atleti Azzurri d'Italia" in Bergamo? We'll assess both teams' chances in our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams find themselves in the same World Cup qualifying group for the first time. Previously, they have not faced each other in this tournament.

Italy Team Overview

🔵 The fortunes of the former European champions have been on a downward trajectory since their triumphant days. Their most notable achievement in recent times was reaching the Nations League quarterfinals, where they were knocked out by Germany (1-2; 3-3). As for the World Cup, the "Azzurri" failed to qualify for the last tournament. In the current qualifiers, Italy are vying for just a second-place finish after a heavy opening defeat to Norway (0-3). This match was a pivotal moment for the federation, which allowed Luciano Spalletti to manage against Moldova (2-0), but had already decided on his dismissal prior to that game. In upcoming matches, Gennaro Gattuso will take the helm for Italy.

🟢 Under Spalletti, Italy played with three defenders, but Gattuso seems set to revert to a more traditional setup. Gianluca Mancini returns to the squad and is expected to partner in central defense with either Alessandro Bastoni or Riccardo Calafiori. The rest of the lineup remains largely unchanged, with all the trusted players called up: Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Barella, Davide Frattesi, Moise Kean, and Mateo Retegui. Interestingly, joining Retegui is his former Atalanta teammate Gianluca Scamacca, who has been recovering from injury for most of the year. He has already made an impact for the Bergamo side this season. It will be intriguing to see who becomes the second choice after Kean, especially with Retegui's move to Saudi Arabia.

Estonia Team Overview

⚪️ Estonia have managed to secure their place in League C of the Nations League, finishing 3rd in a group with Sweden, Slovakia, and Azerbaijan. It's worth recalling that in the previous edition, Estonia won all their matches against San Marino and Malta in League D. In the current World Cup 2026 qualifiers, the Baltic side have played four matches: they earned a thrilling victory over Moldova (3-2) but failed to collect more points. However, in the other three encounters, only Norway managed to leave with a clean sheet. Overall, Estonia have scored 5 goals in 4 matches while conceding 8.

⚫ Naturally, alongside Moldova, Estonia are considered one of the underdogs in their World Cup qualification group. Yet, they do have players from notable European clubs. Most of these are from youth squads, like Patrick Kristal from Köln. For instance, the national team's first-choice goalkeeper Karl Hein is on Arsenal's books and played 31 matches in La Liga last season for Real Valladolid. Another standout in the squad is Mattias Käit, who plays in the Swiss Super League for Thun. The midfielder is Estonia's top scorer in the current qualifiers, netting twice in four appearances.

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Italy

🎙 The surprise omission from the Italian squad is Federico Chiesa. In his first press conference this September, Gennaro Gattuso explained why he opted for three debutants, including Giovanni Leoni from Liverpool, over Chiesa. Gattuso revealed that the decision for Chiesa to stay back was made in conjunction with the player. According to the coach, Chiesa did not feel ready to return to the national team, despite a successful start to the season with Liverpool.

✅ The Italians head into the match with an optimal lineup, except for Chiesa's absence. Three young players may make their debuts: Giovanni Leoni (Liverpool), Francesco Esposito (Inter), and Giovanni Fabbian (Bologna). The coach noted that despite their youth, all three possess qualities that could enhance the team.

Estonia

❌ Estonia's major setback will be the absence of their captain Karol Mets. The St. Pauli defender injured his knee back in December 2024 after returning from international duty following the Nations League. Additionally, Estonia will be without one of their top forwards, Alex Mattias Tamm.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Estonia have shown impressive finishing in the current qualifiers. Over 4 matches, the Baltic team has taken just 12 shots but scored 5 goals – only Norway emerged unscathed. They even struck first against Israel on both occasions. With Gennaro Gattuso taking charge for his first match, we trust in Estonia's entertaining performance in this tournament. Our prediction: both teams to score (yes).

🚩 Corner Prediction

Estonia average 2.75 corners in the current qualifiers. Notably, in recent encounters with Norway and Israel, Jürgen Henn's players did not lose out on corner counts against their more renowned opponents. Meanwhile, the Italians conceded 6 set-pieces in their home match against Moldova. We believe the Baltics can perform just as well in Bergamo. A bet on Estonia's total corners over 1.5 seems well-founded.

The "Azzurri" are set to gain a spark of emotion with the arrival of Gennaro Gattuso, which might be exactly what the players have been missing in recent tournaments and against Norway. When comparing the upcoming opponents' matches against the Scandinavians, Jürgen Henn's team did not seem as hopeless, both in terms of play and especially the scoreline. Despite numerous personnel issues, Estonia manage to capitalize on their few chances and limit goals conceded against higher-caliber opponents—Karl Hein has yet to concede more than three goals in a single match during the World Cup 2026 qualifiers. Italy, on the other hand, share a similar statistic but in terms of creativity—they have not scored more than three goals in 10 of their last 11 World Cup and European Championship qualifiers. A reasonable prediction here would be a 3-1 victory for the hosts. For the main bet, we suggest choosing Italy's total goals under 3.5.