Iceland vs Azerbaijan Prediction for 6 September 2025 - Football

🔊 Which team will kick off their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign with a victory? Azerbaijan appear to be the underdogs not just in the upcoming matchup but within the group as well. Iceland have a better shot at contending for the second spot. However, Ukraine and France seem considerably stronger. Therefore, the Vikings cannot afford to drop points in the opening round, especially at home in Reykjavik at the "Laugardalsvöllur" Stadium. Nonetheless, we will explore various scenarios to make the prediction as insightful as possible.

Head-to-Head

📊 These opponents have not faced each other in official matches.

Iceland Team Overview

🔵 In recent years, Iceland have not been particularly impressive, even though they have a promising new generation coming through. In the latest Nations League campaign, they managed to defeat Montenegro twice but couldn't stand up to Wales and Turkey, highlighting their current standing in Europe. In the playoff matches against Kosovo, the 'Vikings' were not considered favorites. They predictably lost away (1-2) and couldn't pull off an upset at home (1-3). Additionally, in the return leg, Aron Gunnarsson was sent off, sealing their fate. However, Iceland conceded only one goal while down to ten men.

🔴 In June, the Icelanders traveled to the UK for two friendlies. In a surprising turn of events, they defeated Scotland (1-3) in the first match. However, just days later, they failed to score against Northern Ireland (0-1), even though they played with a numerical advantage for half an hour.

Azerbaijan Team Overview

🔵 The Azerbaijan national team has struggled to make progress in recent years, a situation that undoubtedly weighs heavily on the players and coaching staff led by the experienced Fernando Santos. Even with his guidance, the team hasn't secured a victory since June last year, when they defeated Kazakhstan in a friendly match (3-2). Since the 70-year-old specialist took charge, Azerbaijan have recorded two draws and eight losses.

🟢 In the Nations League, Azerbaijan managed a draw against Estonia (0-0), but it wasn't enough to maintain their spot in League C. The team scored three goals across six matches while conceding 17, highlighting their current struggles. In March, Fernando Santos' side suffered defeats not only to Belarus (0-2) but also to Haiti (0-3) in a friendly. June saw slight improvement, with Azerbaijan drawing against Latvia (0-0) and managing to find the net against Hungary (1-2).

Latest news

Iceland

🎙 Iceland's head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson is determined to secure victories not only against Azerbaijan but also France: “It's challenging to talk about must-win games in international football. However, we will give our all to defeat these two opponents. This doesn't mean we absolutely have to beat them. We need to showcase a game focused on future prospects.”

❌ Ahead of the match against Azerbaijan, Arnar Gunnlaugsson was forced to make changes to the lineup. The most significant loss is captain Orri Óskarsson. The 21-year-old forward sustained an injury while playing for Real Sociedad in a La Liga match against Oviedo. Additionally, Al-Gharafa defender Aron Gunnarsson is out. In their place, Hjörtur Hermannsson and Brynjólfur Willumsson have been called up to the team.

Azerbaijan

🎙 Fernando Santos shared his expectations for the upcoming matches: “In football, any outcome is possible. Based on our recent games and training camps, I can say the guys are working well, which gives hope for positive results. I hope they continue at the same pace. We all anticipate victories from the national team.”

✅ Azerbaijan have no major absences. It's worth noting that Mahir Emreli missed several games for Kaiserslautern due to injury. He skipped Azerbaijan's training session but will travel to Reykjavik separately.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Sander van der Eijk from the Netherlands. Last season, he officiated 18 Eredivisie matches, averaging three yellow cards per game. In the current season, he has been in charge of two games with a similar average of cautions issued. Notably, last year he did not oversee matches involving senior national teams, only U21 fixtures.

Looking at the stats from the past year, Iceland have a slight edge in yellow cards (2.9 compared to 2.5). However, their opponents are just as likely to receive similar sanctions. Azerbaijan even surpasses its rivals in this regard, with an average of 1.5 warnings. Therefore, it's worth considering a win for the visitors in yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

We've already noted that Azerbaijan struggle to score but concede frequently. In the last Nations League campaign, they allowed nearly three goals per match on average. The team often concedes before halftime, evident in 6 of their last 7 away matches. Given Iceland's stronger performance at home, it makes sense to bet on a home team goal in the first half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Examining last year's match statistics, Azerbaijan hold an advantage in corners (5 compared to 3.8). Despite the level of opposition, this ratio suggests that the visitors are unlikely to sit back defensively. Matches involving "Milli" average 10.5 corners, and at least nine corners were taken in 10 of Azerbaijan's last 11 matches. This points to a bet on over 8.5 total corners.

The Azerbaijan national team under Fernando Santos has not been impressive, scoring in only four out of ten matches, and just once on the road—against Estonia, which still resulted in a two-goal defeat despite having the upper hand in the game. Such dominance is not expected in the upcoming fixture. Although Iceland faces some squad issues, they are capable of securing a victory, potentially with a scoreline of 2-0.

Reviewing Azerbaijan's results under the Portuguese manager, they've managed to keep a clean sheet in only two games, while conceding at least two goals in the others. Therefore, as a key bet, we suggest Iceland total goals over 1.5.