Uruguay vs Peru Prediction for 5 September 2025 - Football

🔈 Can the Peruvians challenge Marcelo Bielsa's squad? The South American qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup are in full swing. In the 17th round, the national teams of Uruguay and Peru will face off at the "Centenario" stadium in Montevideo. The "Incas" are drifting further from their World Cup dreams with each match, and their performances are far from convincing. The bookmakers' odds clearly reflect the current state of both teams: a home win is set at 1.33, while a victory for the visitors stands at 12. 

Head-to-Head

📊 Over the last 10 head-to-head encounters, Peru have managed to defeat Uruguay only twice. Interestingly, one of those victories came during the current qualifying cycle at the "National Stadium in Lima" (1-0). On that occasion, Miguel Araujo scored the lone goal. Let's take note of the average goals scored by each side throughout their entire head-to-head history: Uruguay – 1.59, Peru – 0.92.

Uruguay Team Overview

🔵 Marcelo Bielsa's squad has experienced mixed results in their current World Cup qualifying campaign. In their last five matches, the "Sky Olympians" have managed just one win, defeating Venezuela 2-0. Nevertheless, the national team is still on course to secure a spot in the main stage of the tournament, having accumulated 24 points from 16 matches played.

📌 Marcelo Bielsa's style of football is known worldwide. On the opponent's half, the Argentine tactician allows his players freedom of movement, which leads to frequent positional changes. While this dynamic style of play is engaging, it does come with its drawbacks. One of the main issues is the regular creation of open spaces due to gaps between the lines. It's also noteworthy that Uruguay strives to maintain width in their attack, deploying two attack-minded players on each flank.

Peru Team Overview

⚪ The "Incas" are having a disappointing qualifying campaign, with only 12 points accumulated from 16 matches. In their last 7 games, the Peru national team has managed just one victory, against Bolivia (3-1). Their scoring record is particularly alarming, averaging just 0.38 goals per game. Even more striking is that Peru have yet to find the back of the net in any of their 8 away matches during this qualifying cycle.

🔴 Since March of this year, the national football federation appointed a new head coach, Oscar Ibáñez. In his first 4 matches at the helm, the "Incas" secured draws against Ecuador (0-0) and Colombia (0-0), as well as an emphatic win over Bolivia (3-1). Oscar Ibáñez is known for his tactical flexibility, allowing him to make adaptable decisions.

Latest news

Uruguay

📰 The two-time World Cup champions had a dismal showing at the last World Cup in Qatar, failing to advance from the group stage for the first time since 2002. With Marcelo Bielsa now at the helm, the national team is gradually finding its footing. The Argentine coach's meticulous efforts to strike a balance across the squad while maintaining his distinctive style are particularly evident.

🏷 The "Sky Blue Olympians" sit 16th in the world rankings and boast one of the most expensive squads among South American teams, valued at €433 million. Uruguay's priciest players include Federico Valverde (€130 million, Real Madrid), Manuel Ugarte (€45 million, Manchester United), and Darwin Núñez (€45 million, Al-Hilal). The greatest attacking hopes rest on the latter, with the former Liverpool forward already netting 5 goals and providing 2 assists in the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign.

Peru

📌 Peru have missed out on the main stage of 9 out of the last 10 World Cups. The last time the "Incas" participated was in Russia, where their tally of just 3 points wasn't enough to secure a spot in the knockout rounds. While Peru are practically out of the running for the upcoming World Cup, the players remain motivated to once again challenge the "Celestial Olympians."

🏷 The Peruvian national team currently hold the 42nd spot in the world rankings and boast a squad valued at 26.30 million euros. It's worth noting that the "Incas" have a notably veteran roster, with an average age of 28.1 years. The most valuable players in Peru's lineup include Oliver Sonne (2.7 million euros, Burnley), Marcos López (2.5 million euros, Copenhagen), and Piero Quispe (2.5 million euros, Sydney).

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

In head-to-head clashes between Uruguay and Peru, we typically see around three yellow cards per match. Looking at the average number of cautions over the last 10 matches for each team: the "Sky Blues" average 3.9, while the "Incas" come in at 3.7. We anticipate a rather tight game with few rough fouls. Based on this, our betting choice is under 4.5 total yellow cards.

⚽ Goal Prediction

South American football rarely features goal bonanzas. In Uruguay's last five matches, no more than two goals have been scored. A similar trend is evident in five of Peru's last six games. Furthermore, head-to-head meetings between the "Sky Blues" and the "Incas" seldom deliver a flurry of goals, averaging about 2.4 per match. In the last six encounters, the number of goals has not exceeded 2.5. Our pick is under 2.5 total goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Over the past 10 matches, Uruguay have approached the corner flag significantly more often than Peru, averaging 5.3 corners compared to 2.6. In head-to-head contests, the "Sky Blues" also hold a slight edge in this area: 4.7 versus 4.3. Marcelo Bielsa emphasizes wing play, so we expect consistent activity from the home side. Our selection is Uruguay's individual total corners over 5.

The Peruvians have been dreadful in away fixtures, failing to score a single goal in the qualifying campaign, which speaks volumes about their struggles on the road. With no motivation left in their final two matches, we highly doubt Oscar Ibanez's squad will pose any significant challenge to the "Sky Blue Olympians." Our editorial team predicts a final score of 2-0. The key pick is a victory for Uruguay with a handicap of (-1).