Netherlands vs Poland Prediction for 5 September 2025 - Football

🔊 Will the Dutch continue to dominate in their World Cup qualifying campaign? For some national teams, the journey is just beginning, while others have already covered significant ground. The Netherlands and Poland fall into the latter category, having played several matches already. The Dutch have maintained a perfect record and will host Poland at De Kuip Stadium in Rotterdam on September 4. Judging by the odds, bookmakers aren't expecting much suspense. Our task is to determine if things are really that straightforward.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over the past five years, the Netherlands and Poland national teams have clashed five times: four meetings in the Nations League and once at last year's Euros. Despite Poland's efforts, they have only managed a draw (2-2), while the Dutch have secured four victories. Notably, in 4 out of these 5 encounters, the "Oranje" scored more than 1.5 goals.

Netherlands Team Overview

Ronald Koeman's team are in great form. They kicked off 2025 with a clash against Spain in the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals, where they held their own against the European champions, only falling short in a penalty shootout. As for the World Cup qualifiers, the "Oranje" are cruising without any issues. They've been showcasing their superiority right from the start, confidently defeating Finland 2-0 away and demolishing Malta 8-0 at home. Memphis Depay has found the net in his last three matches, bringing him level with Robin van Persie in terms of goals for the national team (50). In the coming days, the Corinthians player could take sole possession of the top spot on this list.

Poland Team Overview

The Polish team struggled in their last Nations League campaign, finishing at the bottom of their group and dropping to Division B. This reduction in competition level worked in their favor, allowing them to kick off their World Cup qualification with two victories. However, they suffered a setback against direct rivals Finland, losing 1-2, which significantly dented their chances of reaching the World Cup. Amidst poor results and a conflict with Robert Lewandowski, Michal Probierz made the logical decision to resign. He was replaced by Jan Urban, who has primarily worked within the domestic league. The first challenge for the former Gornik coach promises to be a tough one, especially considering their head-to-head history with the Netherlands national team.

Latest news

Netherlands

🎙 "The first match is the most crucial of the two we have in September. Poland are our rivals in the race for the top spot, and we want to qualify with as much confidence as possible. We know that a victory against Poland would be a huge step forward. Of course, we've analyzed Poland's play, but that was under a different coach. Jan Urban is their new manager, and early in his career, he often employed a 4-4-2 formation. Plus, Robert Lewandowski is back," Ronald Koeman stated at the press conference.

❌ The "Oranje" head into the upcoming match in almost perfect shape squad-wise. They're only missing one key component—wing-back Jeremie Frimpong from Liverpool, who hasn't been called up due to a hamstring injury. All other stars are available.

Poland

🎙 Robert Lewandowski has returned to the national team and has reclaimed the captain's armband. The Barcelona star commented on recent events: "I certainly wasn't smiling after Probierz's departure. Every coaching change, whether at a club or national level, is someone's misfortune. I believe this matter is now settled. We want to focus on what's ahead."

❌ The Poles also face a significant loss. Feyenoord's defensive midfielder Jakub Moder has not been called up due to injury. It's worth noting that Robert Lewandowski has joined the squad not in peak condition, having recently recovered from an injury. This season, the forward has spent less than half an hour on the field.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by a team of referees led by 38-year-old Simone Sozza. The Italian referee averages 3.8 yellow cards over his last 10 matches. Interestingly, he has already officiated a game in this group, issuing only one warning to players from Malta and Finland, yet also brandishing a red card.

Looking at the statistics for the Netherlands and Poland, it's evident that the Poles tend to receive more yellow cards than the Dutch — 2 compared to 1.2 on average over their last 10 official matches. Anticipating the nature of the upcoming encounter, it's reasonable to predict that the "Red and Whites" will once again lead in terms of warnings. Thus, a bet on the visitors to receive more yellow cards seems prudent.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

As previously noted, the Dutch have been prolific in their head-to-head encounters with Poland. Interestingly, in all five of the aforementioned meetings, they have scored after the break. Koeman's side also boasts a current trend of finding the net in the second half in five consecutive official matches. We believe this tradition will continue, leading us to wager that the Netherlands will score in the 2nd half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Looking again at the head-to-head meetings, Poland's average total corners stand at just 2.8 per match. It's likely that for most of the game at "De Kuip," the "Red and Whites" will be focused on defending their own goal, creating chances only sporadically. Therefore, it seems logical to bet on Poland's individual total being under 3.5 corners.

In our view, the odds offered by the bookmakers fairly reflect reality. The Dutch are stronger than the Poles in virtually every position. Of course, Robert Lewandowski might challenge this notion, but considering the captain's current form, it's unlikely he'll be the X-factor this time around. Age is catching up with him, and it's uncertain how the "red and whites" will perform under a new coach and whether Lewandowski will fit into his system. We allow for the possibility that the visitors might score by some miracle, but they are still likely to concede more, and significantly so. We lean towards a rout, perhaps a scoreline of 4-1, and are backing Netherlands to win with a handicap (-1.5).