Burnley vs Sunderland Prediction for 23 August 2025 - Football

🔊 How will the nature of matches for the two Premier League newcomers change compared to their Championship encounters? Burnley and Sunderland kicked off their campaigns in England's top tier with contrasting results, albeit against opponents of varying caliber. Both teams faced seasoned Premier League sides, leaving different impressions. The upcoming clash is set at Turf Moor in Burnley, where the hosts haven't lost to the Black Cats since 2019. Can Sunderland's promising start help them break this trend? Let's assess the likelihood of this and other outcomes in our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 It's been over 8 years since these teams last faced off in the Premier League. Since then, they've clashed 4 times in the Championship and once in the English League Cup. Sunderland hold a slight edge with 2 wins to 1. However, since their 2017 Premier League encounter, the most common outcome has been a goalless draw, which has occurred three times.

Burnley Team Overview

⚪ Burnley's latest "debut" in the English top flight (their third in four years) took place on the road in London. Despite having the best defense in last season's Championship, they conceded three unanswered goals to Tottenham (0-3). However, Scott Parker's squad didn't look entirely hopeless at the start. Despite a passive opening, which resulted from Kyle Walker's nominal role as a central defender, the Clarets attempted to respond with aggressive pressing after conceding. While they couldn't capitalize much on this tactic, they ended the first half with more touches inside the opponent's penalty area (10-6). The match could have turned around had winger Anthony capitalized on a golden opportunity to level the score at 0-1. Yet, between the 60th and 66th minutes, Spurs sealed the final scoreline with two precise strikes.

🔗 During the second half, five of Burnley's summer signings made their appearances: Ugochukwu, Bruun Larsen, Flemming, Chaouna, and Edwards. Ugochukwu even had a chance to break the deadlock after coming on, but left Spurs' keeper Vicario with a clean sheet. By the end of the match, Burnley had eight newcomers on the pitch simultaneously. While these fresh faces couldn't deliver immediate results, the number of debuts and Scott Parker's boldness certainly stand out.

Sunderland Team Overview

🔴 Sunderland have made a triumphant return to the Premier League after an eight-year absence, pulling off the biggest upset of the round by thrashing West Ham 3-0, much to the delight of their fans. The scoreline, however, didn't fully reflect the on-field dynamics. The Black Cats ceded territorial advantage to the visitors (37% to 63% possession) and were outshot (10 to 12). Yet, individual performances turned the tide in their favor, earning them deserved accolades. The match's MVP was Arsenal academy graduate, 25-year-old defender Daniel Ballard. Beyond scoring a goal, the Englishman crucially blocked a shot from Hammers' newcomer Diouf, stepping in for the goalkeeper, and played a pivotal role in initiating attacks—truly a linchpin in Regis Le Bris' tactical setup.

⚫ The head coach of the Red and Whites also deserves praise. Regis Le Bris skillfully integrated five new signings into the top two lines of his squad: Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Habib Diarra, Kamsdine Talbi, and Simon Adingra. They repaid his trust immediately—two of the three goals resulted from the effective play of Adingra and Talbi, both providing assists. The first goal was orchestrated by another club newcomer, Omar Alderete, who set up Eliezer Mayenda.

Latest news

Burnley

❗ The match against Tottenham featured an intriguing incident. The Premier League recently introduced a new rule stipulating that if a goalkeeper holds the ball for more than 8 seconds, a corner is awarded. Burnley's goalkeeper Martin Dubravka experienced this firsthand. It seems his final season in Newcastle's rotation (10 Premier League matches) has dulled the 38-year-old's alertness.

❌ Contrary to injury rumors, newcomers Martin Dubravka and Zian Flemming were included in the squad for the opening fixture, and Scott Parker will likely rely on them moving forward. The debuts of Axel Tuanzebe and Armando Broja remain uncertain as both missed preseason and were left out of the squad against Tottenham. Bashir Humphreys continues his stint in the medical room, recovering from a quadriceps injury sustained last season.

Sunderland

🎙 French coach Régis Le Bris gave special mention to the newly appointed team captain Granit Xhaka. Le Bris stated that the team needs a player like the Swiss international to share his experience with the younger players in the squad. "He is crucial for us, setting the tone, and I think we always knew he could become a key player for our team. We have many young players, and to ensure everyone works together, we need someone like him," praised Sunderland's manager of the midfielder.

❌ Recovering separately from the main squad are Luke O'Nien, Alice Adigbola, Romain Mandl, Leo Fuhr Hjelde, and Dennis Cirkin. Jenson Seelt picked up an injury in Saturday's match and was substituted in the 53rd minute—his participation remains doubtful, although Régis Le Bris noted that the injury isn't serious. The same applies to the club's newcomer, former Beşiktaş defender Arthur Masuaku, who missed the first round due to what the coach deemed suboptimal fitness.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by English referee Michael Salisbury. His average for yellow cards in 46 Premier League matches stands at 4.1 (2.9 over the last 10 games). These teams have often clashed in the Championship in recent years, so let's look at the caution stats from those encounters: over the last four meetings, the teams averaged 3.75 yellow cards between them. Considering Michael Salisbury's refereeing style and the moderate intensity of these clubs' rivalry, we predict there will be fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in the match.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The average goal total in Burnley's last 10 matches is notably higher than their opponents'—2.7 compared to 1.9. It's interesting to note that Sunderland scores most of their goals in the second half: 1.4 compared to 0.5 in the first half. This trend was evident in their match against West Ham, where they broke through the Hammers' defense only in the 61st minute. We anticipate that Daniel Ballard's leadership will help Sunderland's defense withstand the initial pressure from the hosts. Our pick: Burnley will not score in the first half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The advantage in corner totals over the last 10 matches favors the visitors—10.3 compared to 8.7. However, only once in their recent Championship head-to-heads has this figure exceeded 8.5. We suggest taking note of the attractive odds on total corners under 11.5 and opting for this bet.

Despite contrasting results in the first round, bookmakers surprisingly favor the home side as clear favorites in this match-up. On paper, the opponents in the first round for both clubs were certainly of different calibers, but last season's Premier League saw Tottenham and West Ham finish in the lower half of the table. It's also worth noting that prior to their promotion to the top tier, both Burnley and Sunderland went on a significant spending spree, yet only Régis Le Bris managed to integrate the newcomers successfully from the get-go. This could be attributed to either the players' form or the managerial prowess involved. Nonetheless, the fact remains—Sunderland are better prepared for the Premier League kick-off. We anticipate they will handle their first away test well and could alter the most common recent head-to-head results by adding goals to the scoreline (1-2). Given their underdog status but seemingly superior form, it's a reasonable prediction that Sunderland will not lose.