Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction for 24 August 2025 - Football

🔊 Which team, Arsenal or Leeds, will build on their opening Premier League success and secure victory in the second round? Both sides won their previous matches with identical scores, but in contrasting styles. The Premier League newcomer confidently handled Everton, outclassing the seasoned English elite in all statistical metrics. Arsenal, on the other hand, demonstrated the most crucial trait for a title contender—playing below par yet still claiming all three points. What can we expect from both teams at the Emirates? We'll address this and more in our upcoming match analysis.

Head-to-Head

📊 Since Leeds' return to the Premier League in 2020, they have faced Arsenal six times. The Whites have yet to secure their first-ever victory over the Gunners, managing only one draw. Arsenal have come out on top in the other five encounters, with an aggregate score of 17-5.

Arsenal Team Overview

🔴 The English Premier League runners-up faced off against Manchester United in the opening round, leaving a mixed impression with their performance. On one hand, they showed that the Premier League's new regulations tightening rules on set-piece battles in the box don't faze them — the only goal came from a corner, aided by the "Gunners" blocking United's goalkeeper Bayindir. On the other hand, Arsenal's expensive new signing Viktor Gyökeres failed to impress, as Matthijs de Ligt completely neutralized him. Among the visitors, the defensive lines stood out, especially after Mikel Arteta's side were pushed back to their own goal. David Raya earned the title of best player with seven saves to his name. Gabriel was solid throughout the match, and after a shaky first half, William Saliba stepped up as well. And, of course, Riccardo Calafiori's attacking runs can't be overlooked, with one resulting in a goal from him.

Leeds United Team Overview

⚪ The most heated debate after Leeds' match against Everton centered around a penalty awarded to the hosts. This came after a shot by Leeds newcomer Lukas Nmecha, which deflected off Dewsbury-Hall and seemed to hit the pressed arm of the Toffees defender James Tarkowski. Even after a VAR review, the referee stood by his decision. Nmecha converted the spot-kick, opening both the match scoring and his goal tally for the club. Despite the controversial moment, Leeds thoroughly deserved the win. Daniel Farke's team pinned Everton back from the start and dominated the first half (63% to 37% in possession, 12:0 in shots). The second half saw a more balanced game, but Leeds maintained a commanding advantage in shots (21:7 overall and 3:1 on target) and expected goals (2.04 to 0.53 xG).

🔝 Leeds' summer signings shone brightly in the first round. Three newcomers started: goalkeeper Lucas Perry, midfielder Anton Stach, and defender Gabriel Gudmundsson, who was named Man of the Match with the highest rating among all players. Former Wolfsburg forward Lukas Nmecha came on in the 78th minute and within six minutes won and converted a penalty.

Latest news

Arsenal

📝 Arsenal continue to make waves in the transfer market, stunning everyone this week with the signing of Eberechi Eze. The Englishman had been in advanced talks with Tottenham, but the Gunners outbid Spurs, securing the player for €60 million. As for other new arrivals: Viktor Gyökeres and Martín Zubimendi featured in the starting lineup against Manchester United. The Swedish forward didn't make much of an impression, but the Spaniard worked tirelessly for the full 90 minutes. Noni Madueke also made his debut for Arsenal during the match, earning a solid 6.5 utility rating in just 30 minutes on the pitch.

🎙 Heated debates followed the match over Riccardo Calafiori's goal. It was preceded by a block on United's goalkeeper by another Arsenal defender, William Saliba. Opinions were divided: "That's not a foul. Not at all. If anything, the goalkeeper put his hand on the player," said former referee Gallagher. On the opposite side, Ruben Amorim stated, "Without VAR, it's a foul. With VAR, it's still a foul. When you touch a goalkeeper like that, he should be catching the ball, not pushing players. He made the choice to go for the ball, so he couldn't defend himself," declared Manchester United's head coach. Regardless, since the start of the 2023/24 season, the Gunners have scored 31 goals from corners in the Premier League—by far the best tally among all teams. Their closest rival, Liverpool, has managed 20 goals in the same period.

❌ In Saturday's match against United, the Gunners lost two key players: Ben White was substituted in the 70th minute due to an injury, and news of Kai Havertz's knee injury recurrence emerged after the game. The recovery timelines for both players remain uncertain, but Mikel Arteta is considering new signing Eberechi Eze as a potential replacement for the German. Eze might also fill in for Gabriel Jesus, who is recovering from an ACL tear suffered earlier this year.

Leeds United

📝 This week, the club announced the signing of 25-year-old forward Noah Okafor, who has made 43 appearances in Serie A for Milan and Napoli, for a fee of €19 million.

🎙 The debate over the fairness of awarding a penalty for the ball hitting James Tarkowski's tucked arm lingered long after the match ended. "An arm along the body is natural, not a penalty. If you don't cut it off, where is it supposed to go?" questioned the penalized player. Everton's manager, David Moyes, shared this view: "I will insist to the end that it wasn't a penalty. I truly believe there was none. I approached the referee. He basically said it wasn't his decision but VAR's; they made that call." This incident sparked widespread discussion among football pundits. Gary Neville saw guilt in the defender's eyes, suggesting he deliberately placed his hand. Jamie Carragher supported his colleague, noting the split-second decision required by the referee. Meanwhile, Chris Sutton on BBC Radio exclaimed, "Scandal! The arm was down – no penalty."

❌ Leeds head into their upcoming match with a full-strength squad. New signing Jaka Bijol has served his suspension following a red card in Serie A. Reports of serious injuries to Jayden Bogle and Sebastian Bornauw proved premature, as both were included in the squad for the previous match, with Bogle playing the full 90 minutes.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Jarred Gillett from Australia. In his last 10 Premier League games last season, he averaged 4.1 yellow cards per match, while in the first round of the current season, he issued 3. The teams' average over their last five head-to-head encounters stands at 2.8. Typically, the higher-ranked club tends to draw more yellow cards from their opponents, but Leeds bucks this trend. Only once in their last five meetings with Arsenal have the "Peacocks" received more than 2.5 cautions. We believe that Daniel Farke's squad is not prone to rough play, so we'll bet on Leeds' individual total yellow cards under 2.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The Championship newcomers have a higher goal total for both teams over their last 10 games, at 2.9 compared to Arsenal's 2.7 in the Premier League. Early matches have shown both teams in good form: Arsenal with defensive prowess, Leeds in creating chances. However, the "Whites" have struggled with finishing, as seen when they dominated Everton in the first half but only scored late due to a scramble in the box. We think Daniel Farke's side will find it tough to breach Arteta's solid defense, so we predict that Leeds will not score.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Recent head-to-heads between these teams haven't featured many corners, with an average total of 6.8 over six Premier League matches. Despite this, the "Peacocks" have secured more than 2.5 corners in four of those games. This trend extends to Leeds' other opponents as well, with Farke's team earning at least three corners in each of their last 33 matches. Against Everton, they even outperformed them with a 7:2 corner count. After reviewing the odds, we find that a bet on Leeds' individual total corners over 2.5 looks very appealing.

Bookmakers overwhelmingly favor Arsenal as the frontrunner in this matchup. The Gunners were consistently strong last season, both at home and away, with just two losses and an equal number of goals conceded (17 in 19 matches). Last week, a challenging away game showed us that Mikel Arteta's high-caliber defense remains intact. Leeds, on the other hand, face certain issues—not so much in creating chances, but definitely in finishing them off. We believe Daniel Farke will find it very difficult to breach the hosts' defensive lines, and we're not expecting many goals or even scoring opportunities from the visitors. It's time for Arsenal's attack to wake up, and who better to do it against than a Championship graduate? Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze should start racking up the stats, and we anticipate an entertaining performance with high scoring—at least a 2-0 victory. The odds on Arsenal winning with a -1.5 handicap look promising.