Bayern vs Leipzig Prediction for 23 August 2025 - Football

🔊 Can anyone seriously challenge Bayern Munich for the "silver salad bowl" in the new season? The Bundesliga champions kick off the 2025/26 campaign with a home match against Leipzig, a team that was recently considered one of their main rivals. However, last season's performances prompted management to make changes to their squad, and it's unlikely Leipzig will be seen as a real contender to Bayern this season. For the visitors, success would mean a return to European competition, ideally the Champions League. As for the hosts, their goals remain unchanged year after year: to claim every trophy in the competitions they enter. But with the season yet to start, it's too early to draw any definitive conclusions. Nevertheless, we've prepared a prediction that we believe is the most reasonable.

Head-to-Head

📊 In head-to-head encounters, Bayern hold a significant advantage: 11 victories for the Munich side compared to Leipzig's 3. There have also been seven draws, the most recent of which occurred on May 3, 2025, during the 32nd round of the last Bundesliga season, where the teams delivered a thrilling goal-fest for football fans (3-3).

Bayern Munich Team Overview

🔴 Vincent Kompany can look back on last year's debut with the Munich club as a success. The Belgian manager led the team to a Bundesliga title. However, in the Champions League and the DFB-Pokal, the club didn't achieve significant results, exiting at stages that seemed premature given their stature, despite the level of competition. Over the summer, Bayern also participated in the FIFA Club World Cup but fell short, losing in the quarterfinals to eventual finalists PSG (0-2).

⚪ Following that, the players took a brief break before gearing up for the new season with a series of friendly matches, where they defeated Lyon (2-1), Tottenham (4-0), and Grasshopper (2-1). Next, the Munich side faced off against the current DFB-Pokal holders, Stuttgart, in the German Super Cup. Thanks to goals from Harry Kane and newcomer Luis Diaz, the team held firm in the closing stages, conceding just one reply, and secured another trophy in the season opener (2-1).

Leipzig Team Overview

🔴 The "Red Bulls" had a disappointing last season. Leipzig finished in 7th place, missing out on all European competitions for the first time in their nine-year Bundesliga history. In response, the management appointed a new head coach for the upcoming season – Ole Werner, who previously worked with Werder Bremen.

⚪ After the season ended, the club didn't immediately head off on vacation. First, the team traveled to Brazil for a friendly against Santos, which they won comfortably (3-1). The players then took a brief summer break before regrouping for a training camp. During this period, they played warm-up matches against Meuselwitz (3-0), Toulouse (7-0), Atalanta (1-2), and Lens (1-2). On August 19, Leipzig officially kicked off the new season in the DFB-Pokal's round of 64. They traveled to face Sandhausen, a team from the Southwest Regional League, and secured a hard-fought victory (4-2). New signings Jan Diomand and Ezequiel Banzuzi, along with Willi Orban and Xavi Simons, found the back of the net.

Latest news

Bayern Munich

📝 Following high-profile signings like Jonathan Tah and Luis Diaz, Bayern are facing a conflict of interest over their transfer strategy. Sporting Director Max Eberl insists the club needs another signing. Christopher Nkunku from Chelsea has been discussed, but board members Uli Hoeness and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge believe the risk might be unjustified, as they initially planned to sign Florian Wirtz and Nico Völltemade. They are only willing to approve a loan deal, whereas Chelsea are adamant about a permanent transfer. Bayern also showed interest in Alejandro Garnacho and Xavi Simons, but both players declined the move.

❓ The future of midfielder Paul Wanner, who played on loan at Heidenheim last season, remains uncertain. He struggles to secure more playing time with Bayern, while Borussia Mönchengladbach, Werder Bremen, and PSV are all vying for his signature.

❌ Aleksandar Pavlovic has started training with the team and might contend for a spot in the lineup against Leipzig. Alphonso Davies continues his recovery from a knee injury. Paul Wanner's participation is doubtful due to an ankle injury. Defender Hiroki Ito and attacking midfielder Jamal Musiala are unavailable.

Leipzig

🏆 In the current transfer window, Leipzig have sold their top scorer, Slovenian forward Benjamin Sesko, to Manchester United for €76.5 million. The club might also lose another key attacking player, Xavi Simons, who is keen on a move to London-based Chelsea. Leipzig have offloaded defender Ilaix Moriba, forwards Yussuf Poulsen and Andre Silva, as well as goalkeeper Janis Blaswich. In total, the club has earned €86.8 million from these transfers.

📝 To replace the outgoing players, the club have acquired Arthur Vermeeren, Ezequiel Banzuzi, Jan Diomande, Johan Bakayoko, Andrija Maksimovic, Romulo, and Max Finkgrefe, spending €112 million in the process. Leipzig have also intensified talks with Chelsea regarding Christopher Nkunku's potential transfer. A permanent deal is being considered. Nkunku himself is open to returning to his former club and is interested in a full transfer. As of now, the deal for Nkunku's return to Leipzig is not close to completion, and the forward remains open to other options.

❌ It is unclear when Benjamin Henrichs will return to the squad following his Achilles injury. There are also doubts over the availability of Lukas Klostermann, Andrija Maksimovic, and young winger Tidiam Gomis for the upcoming away match.

🟨 Yellow Cards

🟨 Yellow Cards

Last season, Bayern averaged 1.6 yellow cards per match, while Leipzig picked up 2. The average total of yellow cards in Bayern's matches was 3.8, and for Leipzig, it was 3.9. With these stats in mind, we recommend betting on over 3.5 yellow cards, supported by the fact that this outcome hit in their last four head-to-head encounters.

⚽ Goal Prediction

In the Bundesliga season opener, we anticipate Bayern, backed by their home fans, will aim to dominate from the first minute at the Allianz Arena. Considering the high skill level of Bayern's attacking line and Leipzig's defensive issues, evident in their recent cup match, it's reasonable to predict that Bayern will score more than one goal. Our prediction: Bayern's individual total over 2.5 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

It's rare for any team to outdo Bayern in corner statistics. Last season, Bayern averaged 6.6 corners per match, compared to Leipzig's 4.9. We suggest considering a bet on over 8.5 corners, a scenario that occurred in 4 out of their last 5 head-to-head games.

The home side embark on their primary mission – defending their Bundesliga title. In addition, the club will be vying for trophies across all competitions they participate in. Despite missing players like Davies and Musiala, Bayern have the squad depth to maintain their style against nearly any opponent.

It will be intriguing to watch Leipzig this season, but realistically it's hard to see the Red Bulls challenging for the title. Their main objective seems to be securing a return to the Champions League. How they handle this after selling Šeško and the potential departure of Simons remains to be seen.

We anticipate that the hosts should face no issues in the season opener: prediction – Bayern to win with a handicap of (-1.5). Likely scoreline – 4-0.