PSG vs Real Madrid Prediction 10 July 2025

🔊 How will Kylian Mbappe's encounter with his former club unfold? The French star is about to embark on his second season with Madrid, while legal disputes with PSG are still ongoing. However, that's not the focus right now. The more pressing matter is the Club World Cup semifinal. Unlike the first pairing, there are no surprises here. Both Paris Saint-Germain and Real were expected to reach this stage, but one of these European giants will have to head home. Bookmakers see no clear favorite, setting the stage for an intriguing clash at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Both teams enter the match with significant personnel losses. The outcome of the final spot will largely depend on which side can best conceal these absences.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams share a rich head-to-head history. In the 21st century, they have clashed eight times in the Champions League and once in the International Champions Cup. However, considering a friendly doesn't add much value, let's focus on their stats in Europe's premier club competition. Madrid hold the edge with four victories against two, while two matches ended in draws.

It's worth noting that in 5 of their last 6 encounters, the teams have hit the over. Given their current form in this tournament, where they average over two goals per game, betting on over 2.5 goals seems a reasonable prediction.

Paris Saint-Germain Team Overview

🔵 As Luis Enrique stated, PSG are aiming for all trophies. The team didn't travel to the USA just to make up the numbers. Despite a defeat to Botafogo (0-1), they breezed through the group stage and faced little resistance from Inter Miami in the round of 16, winning 2-0.

🔴 In the quarter-finals, PSG faced Bayern Munich, who predictably put up a fight. The Bavarians dominated possession and even found the net twice, but both goals were ruled offside. Meanwhile, Luis Enrique's men scored cleanly, with their second goal coming even after they were reduced to nine men. Overall, their attacks were more precise and dangerous (1.99-0.63 xG), making the 2-0 victory well-deserved.

🔝 The red-carded William Pacho and Lucas Hernandez became the antiheroes of the match. However, someone who was consistently excellent was Gianluigi Donnarumma. He kept his composure following an incident with Jamal Musiala and recorded his fourth clean sheet of the tournament, leading in that category. Achraf Hakimi also deserves high praise, contributing decisively in his third consecutive game. His activity around the opposition's penalty area led to Ousmane Dembele's goal, which sealed the match.

Real Madrid Team Overview

⚪ Mbappé joined Real Madrid to chase Champions League glory, yet ironically, he hasn't claimed any significant trophies while PSG have swept up everything in sight. However, a new era dawns in Madrid with high expectations. Under Xabi Alonso's guidance, the team is gradually improving, remaining unbeaten in the tournament. Their only slip-up came in the opening match against Al-Hilal (1-1).

👑 In the Round of 16, Real Madrid rightfully edged past Juventus (1-0), and then knocked Borussia Dortmund out in the quarter-finals (3-2). However, the "Blancos" couldn't avoid creating problems for themselves. They confidently led 2-0 by the 20th minute but failed to extend the lead, leading to a tense finish. Mbappé seemed to seal the game with a stunning strike for 3-1, but Dortmund earned a penalty in the immediate counterattack. It was converted, and in the 99th minute, Marcel Sabitzer nearly forced extra time, but Thibaut Courtois made a crucial save against the Austrian's challenging shot.

🔝 Dean Huijsen let his teammates down with a red card, marking Madrid's second dismissal of the tournament. On a positive note, Gonzalo García continues to impress. The academy graduate maintains his streak of contributing in every match, scoring the opener, while the second goal came from Fran García, who is showing significant progress under Alonso, solidifying the left flank. The MVP of the match was Arda Güler, who provided two assists.

Latest news

Paris Saint-Germain

❗ The analytical portal Opta has recalculated the teams' chances of winning the Club World Cup following the quarterfinals. PSG remain the top favorites (39.33%), just as they were at the start of the tournament.

⭐ Achraf Hakimi, Desire Doue, and Joao Neves have been named in the official Team of the Quarterfinals for the Club World Cup.

🎙 "It was a very intense match with a lot of duels. This is part of football—these games are about fighting on the pitch. Today, we showed our fighting spirit once again. The most important thing is the victory. We lost to them at the start of the season, so it was crucial to get revenge. Today's win really delighted us," said Desire Doue, who scored the winning goal and was named MVP of the match against Bayern.

🎙 Luis Enrique: "It was a tense match against a strong opponent who caused us problems. I am pleased with the result. It's a strange feeling. In Pacho's case, the red card was warranted, but I'm not sure about the second one. We are a team that wants to play football. We were at our best and deserved to win in a tough match. We had to defend with one player down, and the end of the game was very challenging. You judge by the result, but Bayern played a very good game; they could have won."

🎙 Achraf Hakimi: "I wasn't thinking about whether I'd play against Mbappe, but I always wish him all the best. As I've said before, he's a good friend, and it would be great to meet him in the semifinals, but I'll be defending my team's colors, which is the most important thing."

❌ In the match against Real, the team will be without suspended players Lucas Hernandez and William Pacho. While the Frenchman often comes off the bench, the Ecuadorian is a key starter whose absence could be problematic. It is expected that Lucas Beraldo will take his place.

Real Madrid

❗ Based on the semifinal matchups, Opta believes Real Madrid's chances of winning the tournament are lower than those of PSG and Chelsea, standing at just 24.67%.

⭐ Two Madrid representatives made it into the symbolic team of the quarterfinals – Arda Güler and Kylian Mbappé.

💸 Real Madrid earned €72.89 million from the Club World Cup, the highest figure among all participants.

🎙 Trent Alexander-Arnold: “The game was intense, just as we expected. Dortmund are a great team, but we didn't allow them many shots or chances. It got a bit chaotic towards the end, but the main thing is the victory, and we achieved it. Earlier this season, I played against PSG and know how good they are. We are confident we can beat any team in this tournament.

🎙 “In reality, we controlled everything and hardly allowed any chances at our goal. However, the last few minutes were chaotic because we slowed down a bit. We played well for 80 minutes, but the final 10 weren't as successful. The match against Paris will be a serious test for us. But there were many positives today, and we're looking forward to the next game,” stated Xabi Alonso.

❌ David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick, and Ferland Mendy are usual absences for Madrid. They haven't played a single match in the tournament. However, the absence of Dean Huijsen, who seamlessly integrated into the starting lineup by playing every game from start to finish except the last one, is a significant concern.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

A match of this magnitude requires an experienced referee, and Szymon Marciniak, one of Europe's most esteemed officials, will be in charge. The Polish referee averages 3.2 yellow cards over his last 10 games, issuing no red cards. Real Madrid have a positive record under Marciniak's officiating this season, suffering a defeat to Atletico (0-1, advancing on penalties), but securing wins over Atalanta (3-2) and Juventus (1-0). As for PSG, their record is balanced – they also lost to Atletico (0-1) but overcame Man City (4-2).

Let's delve into the teams' statistics in the Club World Cup. Both teams average 0.8 yellow cards per game. However, PSG force their opponents into cautions more frequently (2.6 compared to 1.5). We anticipate a similar scenario in their head-to-head clash. Real Madrid's untested defense will find it challenging to contain Paris's fleet of skillful wingers. Thus, we suggest the following bet – Real Madrid's individual total over 1.5 yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

PSG have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 matches. However, with all due respect to Inter, Atletico, and Bayern, they haven't faced an attacking lineup like this one. Mbappe is fit and will be highly motivated against his former teammates, while Paris's defense has lost a key component. The same can be said for Madrid. Given these factors, a bet on both teams to score (yes) seems highly logical.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Both teams play with a clear attacking focus, so a high number of corners shouldn't be surprising. Throughout the tournament, both Paris and Real average over 5 corners per game. Luis Enrique's side didn't win a single corner against Bayern, but Madrid play with less emphasis on ball control than the Munich side, so such an anomaly is unlikely to repeat. We propose a bet on over 3.5 corners for PSG, a target they have hit in 8 of their last 9 matches.

PSG are the bookmakers' favorites, and rightly so. While they might not outshine individually, their teamwork is what truly stands out, which is far more crucial. Paris operate like a well-oiled machine, rarely faltering, whereas Alonso is still working on building cohesion in Madrid. Therefore, we believe the nominal hosts will advance further. We anticipate a final score of 2-1 after 90 minutes.

Unless Thibaut Courtois goes into cyborg mode, the Parisians should surpass the two-goal mark, a feat they've achieved in nine of their last ten games. Luis Enrique's attacking line is just too creative and diverse to be contained. Breaking down a "bus" defense? No problem. Scoring against Bayern with nine men? Why not? Considering all this, our main bet is on PSG's individual total over 1.5 goals.