Portugal vs Italy Prediction 8 July 2025

🔊 Will Italy secure their spot in the knockout stage of Group B after just the second round? The answer largely hinges on the outcome of their clash with Portugal at the Stade de Genève. A win for Italy, combined with Belgium dropping points against Spain in the parallel match, would see the Italians advance to the playoffs ahead of schedule. For Portugal, the stakes are much higher: following their heavy defeat to Spain in the opener, another loss would virtually end their hopes of progressing in the Euros. Given the head-to-head history and current form, Italy are the clear favorites in this encounter. However, a crucial question arises: how justified is the confidence in an Italian victory, considering Portugal's pressure and motivation to keep their tournament hopes alive?

Head-to-Head

📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Portugal (W) and Italy (W):

• 4 matches played;
• home wins – 0, away wins – 4, draws – 0;
• goals scored – 1 for Portugal, 8 for Italy;
• average total goals in the 1st half – 1, in the 2nd half – 0.75;
• average total goals per match – 2.25.

Portugal (W) Team Overview

The team's last official match took place on during the first round of the European Championship, featuring Spain (W) as the hosts and Portugal (W) as the visitors. The match concluded with a scoreline of 5-0.

Here are the match statistics (Portugal (W) vs Spain (W)):

• possession percentage: 29% vs 71%;
• corner kicks: 1 vs 10;
• fouls: 5 vs 11;
• yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
• shots on target: 1 vs 9.

🔴 Portugal's national team faced a tough challenge as they kicked off the final stage of the Euros against Spain. Francisco Neto's squad found themselves under intense pressure from the get-go, conceding two goals by the seventh minute and failing to recover from that early blow. By halftime, the score was a disheartening 0-4.

🟢 In the second half, the Portuguese coaching staff made a double substitution: Ana Seiça and Ana Borges replaced Andreia Jacinto and Beatriz Fonseca. These changes injected some life into the team's play, as they managed to keep a clean sheet for most of the second half. However, in stoppage time, on the 93rd minute, Spain netted a fifth goal, sealing the final score at 0-5.

❌ Prior to 2017, Portugal had never participated in the final stages of the European Championships. This tournament in Switzerland marks their third consecutive appearance. However, if they fall to Italy as well, they will once again exit the Euros at the group stage for the third time in a row, failing to reach the knockout rounds of Europe's premier tournament.

Italy (W) Team Overview

The visitors' last official match took place on during the opening round of the European Championship, with Belgium (W) hosting Italy (W). The match concluded with a 0-1 scoreline.

Here's the match statistics (Italy (W) vs Belgium (W)):

• possession: 47% vs 53%;
• corners: 5 vs 4;
• fouls: 8 vs 14;
• yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
• shots on target: 7 vs 2.

🔵 The "Squadra Azzurra" kicked off their Euro campaign with a victory over Belgium. The Belgians initially applied pressure, but the Italians quickly managed to push the play away from their goal and take control of the ball. This allowed them to settle into the game with confidence. By the end of the first half, the match appeared balanced until the Italians executed a brilliant and precise combination. Lucia Di Guglielmo delivered a pass that Arianna Caruso skillfully controlled before firing a precise shot into the top corner of the near post—a goal that was the highlight of the match and gave the "Squadra Azzurra" a narrow lead at halftime.

3️⃣ In the second half, Italy couldn't extend their lead, but smart coaching decisions and timely substitutions helped them maintain a clean sheet. The result was a 1-0 victory, securing three crucial points at the start of the tournament.

☑ Now, should Italy defeat Portugal and Spain overcome Belgium, Italy will secure an early spot in the playoffs with six points, regardless of the outcome in their third match against Spain. This would be a significant achievement for the Italians, as the "Squadra Azzurra" haven't advanced from the group stage at the Euros since 2013, having been eliminated in the group stages in the last two tournaments.

Latest news

Portugal (W)

🎙 Portugal's head coach Francisco Neto on second-half adjustments and the upcoming match: "First and foremost, we aimed to increase the volume and intensity of our pressing. We know Ana Borges is one of those players who presses actively. We also know that Fátima Pinto excels at challenging and can elevate the team's intensity in midfield. This allowed us to improve our play. During tomorrow's training session, we must focus on the game against Italy. From this point on, our main concerns are about recovery."

Italy (W)

🔝 Arianna Caruso, who netted the winning goal, was rightfully named the Player of the Match against Belgium.

🎙 A brief interview with Arianna after the victory: "Belgium have a strong team, and it was tough for us. The heat made it even more challenging. We didn't perform at our best in some situations, but we made a few tactical adjustments during halftime. We played well, and after the goal, we stepped up our game. I'm thrilled to have scored, but today, the most important thing was to start the tournament with a win. I'm proud of our team. We've made a good start, and now we need to quickly recharge before the next match."

Prediction for the 1st half

Head-to-Head Matches:

• Total encounters – 4;
• First-half wins for the home team (at home) – 1; for the away team (on the road) – 1; draws – 0;
• Average first-half total: 1;
• Today's home team averages 0.25 goals, while the visitors average 0.75.

First Half Stats: Portugal (W) (home) vs Italy (W) (away)

• Matches played in the tournament: 0 vs 1;
• Wins: 0 (0%) vs 1 (100%);
• Losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
• Draws: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
• Average goals scored: 0 vs 1;
• Average goals conceded: 0 vs 0.

Last 10 Matches (Overall):

• Wins: 3 vs 6;
• Losses: 6 vs 0;
• Draws: 1 vs 4;
• Average first-half total: 2.9 (scored – 0.9, conceded – 2) vs 1 (scored – 1, conceded – 0).

• Portugal (W) have lost the first half in 5 consecutive games.

Outcome Prediction

Outcome Prediction

Head-to-Head Matches:

• Total encounters – 4;
• Home victories – 0, Away victories – 4, Draws – 0.

Statistics: Portugal (W) vs Italy (W)

• Matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 1;
• Wins: 0 vs 1;
• Win percentage: 0% vs 100%;
• Losses: 1 vs 0;
• Draws: 0 vs 0.

Last 10 Matches:

• Wins: 4 vs 4;
• Losses: 5 vs 2;
• Draws: 1 vs 4.

• Portugal (W) have covered the +1.5 handicap at home in 12 of their last 14 matches.

Total Goals Prediction

Head-to-Head Matches

• Average goals scored by home team - 0.25, away team - 2;
• Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 2.25;
• Both teams have scored: all-time - once; at the home ground - once.

• The total over 2.5 goals has hit in 9 of Portugal's last 10 matches.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Head-to-Head Matches:

• Total encounters – 4;
• Both teams have scored all-time - once;
• At the home ground - once.

Statistics: Portugal (W) vs Italy (W)

• Matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 1;
• Matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 0 vs 0;
• BTTS for Portugal (W) at home – 0 (0%);
• BTTS for Italy (W) away – 0 (0%).

Last 10 Matches:

• BTTS matches: 6 vs 4;
• BTTS for Portugal (W) at home – 3 (60%);
• BTTS for Italy (W) away – 3 (43%).