Germany vs Italy Prediction 23 June 2025

📢 Can Italy withstand Germany's attacking onslaught in the quarterfinals of the UEFA European Under-21 Championship? Germany are in impressive form, having secured victories in their recent matches and extending their streak of successful performances. The Italians are also in great shape, eager to advance to the semifinals. It will be intriguing to see how both teams handle the high-paced game and who can capitalize on their opportunities most effectively.

Head-to-Head

📊Statistical preview of official encounters between Germany U21 and Italy U21:

• 8 matches played;
• home side victories – 3, away side wins – 2, draws – 3;
• total goals – 8 to 7;
• average first-half total – 0.25, second-half – 0.38;
• average total goals per match – 1.25.

Germany U21 Team Overview

The team's last official match took place on as part of the UEFA European Under-21 Championship, with England U21 as the nominal hosts and Germany U21 as the nominal visitors. The match concluded with a 1-2 scoreline.

Here are the match statistics (Germany U21 vs England U21):

• possession: 34% vs 66%;
• corners: 2 vs 7;
• fouls: 15 vs 10;
• yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
• shots on target: 2 vs 5.

⚫ Germany's Under-21 team continue to deliver outstanding performances on the international stage. The squad have triumphed in 8 of their last 10 official matches, boasting one of the most formidable attacks with an average of 3 goals per game. In recent outings, the Germans have showcased a dominant style of play, emphasizing ball control and swift attacking combinations.

✅ Germany are the only team at the U21 Euros to navigate the group stage with a perfect record, securing 9 points from 9. After emphatic victories over Slovenia (3-0) and the Czech Republic (4-2), they secured their playoff spot early, allowing them to field a reserve lineup in the final group match against England. Despite the absence of Nick Woltemade (4 goals and 2 assists in the first two games), Germany still emerged victorious (2-1). Ansgar Knauff particularly shone, contributing a goal and an assist. Now, the coaching staff face an intriguing challenge: how to fit both Knauff and Woltemade on the pitch simultaneously, given that they typically occupy the same position.

Italy U21 Team Overview

The last official match for the current visitors took place on in the UEFA European Under-21 Championship, with Spain U21 as the nominal hosts and Italy U21 as the nominal visitors. The match ended in a 1-1 draw.

Here are the match statistics (Italy U21 vs Spain U21):

• possession: 56% vs 44%;
• corners: 2 vs 3;
• fouls: 11 vs 15;
• yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
• shots on target: 4 vs 2.

🔵 Italy U21 are renowned for their organized play and solid defense, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals per match. Their attack is equally impressive, finding the net in nearly every game thanks to their quick counter-attacks and ability to capitalize on set-pieces to threaten opponents' goals. 

✅ Italy secured second place in their group, amassing 7 points and trailing Spain only on goal difference. Throughout the group stage, they focused on a defensive strategy. This approach paid off in matches against Romania (1-0) and Slovakia (1-0), but fell short in the final clash with Spain (1-1), where Italy needed a win to clinch first place and a more favorable draw in the playoffs (facing England instead of Germany). In the game against Spain, captain and central defender Daniele Ghilardi stood out, not only for his defensive prowess but also for providing an assist. He could be the key figure for the team against Germany.

Prediction for the 1st half

First Half Statistics: Germany U21 (Home) vs Italy U21 (Away)

• Number of matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 2;
• Number of wins: 1 (100%) vs 1 (50%);
• Number of losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
• Number of draws: 0 (0%) vs 1 (50%);
• Average total goals scored: 2 vs 0.5;
• Average total goals conceded: 0 vs 0.

Last 10 Matches (Overall):

• Number of wins: 8 vs 7;
• Number of losses: 0 vs 0;
• Number of draws: 2 vs 3;
• Average first half total: 2.3 (scored – 2.1, conceded – 0.2) vs 1.2 (scored – 1.1, conceded – 0.1).

• Germany U21 scored in the 1st half in last 9 games.

Prediction on the outcome

H2H:

• number of encounters – 8;
• home team wins – 3, away team wins – 2, draws – 3.

Statistics: Germany U21 vs Italy U21

• matches played in the tournament: 3 vs 3;
• wins: 3 vs 2;
• win percentage: 100% vs 67%;
• losses: 0 vs 0;
• draws: 0 vs 1.

Last 10 matches:

• wins: 8 vs 6;
• losses: 0 vs 0;
• draws: 2 vs 4.

• Italy U21 won with a +1.5 handicap in last 26 games.
• Italy U21 won with a +1.5 handicap in last 14 away games.
• Italy U21 won with a +1.5 handicap in 12 of last 13 games (European Under-21 Championship).

Prediction on the over/under

H2H

• today's home team scores on average - 1, the guests - 0.88;
• average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 1.25;
• both teams scored: overall - 1; at the home team's field - 0.

Statistics: Germany U21 vs Italy U21

• average total in the tournament: 4 vs 1.33;
• average total goals scored: 3 vs 1;
• average total in the 1st half: 2 vs 0.67;
• average total in the 2nd half: 1 vs 0.33;
• Germany U21: average total at home in the tournament -  3;
• Italy U21: average total away in the tournament - 1;
• last 10 matches (average total): 3.5 (home - 2.2) vs 2.6 (away - 2.8).

• Under 3.5 goals scored in 7 of last 8 Germany U21 games (European Under-21 Championship).
• Under 3.5 goals scored in last 5 Italy U21 games.

Prediction on corners

Germany U21: Statistics

• season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3; at home field - 5;
• last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6.2; at home field - 7.8.

Italy U21: Statistics

• season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3, away - 2.5;
• last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.3; away - 3.

Prediction on cards

Germany U21: Statistics

• season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.33; at home - 1;
• last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 0.4; at home - 0.2.

Italy U21: Statistics

• season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 2, away - 2.5;
• last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 0.6; away - 1.

Prediction on BTTS

H2H:

• number of encounters – 8;
• both teams scored all-time - 1 times;
• on the home team’s field - 0 times.

Statistics: Germany U21 vs Italy U21

• number of matches played in the tournament: 3 vs 3;
• number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 2 vs 1;
• number of BTTS matches for Germany U21 at home – 0 (0%);
• number of BTTS matches for Italy U21 away – 1 (50%).

Last 10 matches:

• number of BTTS matches: 6 vs 4;
• BTTS matches for Germany U21 at home – 1 (20%);
• BTTS matches for Italy U21 away – 2 (40%).