PSG vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 16 June 2025

🔊 Can Diego Simeone find a way to counter Luis Enrique's benchmark team? One of the most anticipated matches of the FIFA Club World Cup group stage kicks off in the first round. Paris Saint-Germain and Atlético Madrid will clash at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Bookmakers have no trouble identifying the favorite — it's the Parisian giants, who are coming off the best season in their history. While we won't argue with that, we will offer some additional promising betting options. Let's dive into the prediction!

Head-to-Head

📊 The first official head-to-head between these opponents took place during the group stage of last season's Champions League. At that time, PSG had not yet evolved into Europe's top team and fell to Atletico at home (1-2). Despite the loss, the Parisians were clearly superior to the "Colchoneros," as the stats confirm (18-4 in shots, 1.9-0.5 in xG).

Paris Saint-Germain Team Overview

🔵 It's been said a thousand times, but it bears repeating: PSG have had an outstanding season. The team literally won everything. While domestic dominance is nothing new, their long-awaited triumph in the Champions League is something special. Luis Enrique's squad battled through to the playoffs, overcoming three Premier League sides, and crushed Inter Milan in the final.

🔝 Ousmane Dembélé didn't score (he hasn't found the net since early May), yet he was incredibly impactful. The leading contender for the Ballon d'Or contributed two assists and put in tremendous work pressing the opposition. The standout star of the final, however, was Désiré Doué, who at just 19 years old registered a 2+1 performance, becoming the first player to achieve three goal contributions in a Champions League final.

Atletico Madrid Team Overview

🔴 The "Colchoneros" wrapped up their season in style with two emphatic victories. However, the issue remains that Simeone's men failed to secure any silverware. Barcelona knocked them out of the Copa del Rey, while Real Madrid ended their Champions League journey. In La Liga, the "Colchoneros" stumbled too often and fell out of the title race early, ultimately finishing in their usual third place.

Towards the season's end, Alexander Sørloth hit a rich vein of form. In May, the Norwegian netted a poker and a hat-trick, marking his second consecutive season with 20+ goals in the league. But we know full well that the main threat in Atlético's lineup is Julián Álvarez. The Argentine seamlessly integrated into Simeone's setup and emerged as the team's top scorer this season with 29 goals and 7 assists.

Latest news

Paris Saint-Germain

❗ PSG are the top favorites for the Club World Cup according to Opta. The statistical portal estimates their chances of winning at 18.5%.

🎙 Paris coach Luis Enrique: “We’ll kick off the tournament against a European club, namely Atletico. We know each other well since we faced off in the Champions League this season. It’s going to be a tough match, but we’re ready to take on any club. Now is the perfect time to return to competition and aim to win the Club World Cup.”

❌ Bradley Barcola picked up an injury in the Nations League semi-final but should be fit for the start of the Club World Cup. However, Ousmane Dembele might miss the entire group stage, yet he still traveled with the team to the USA and even participated in a training session.

Atletico Madrid

🎙 "We all know how challenging the group stages can be, and we are up against three strong teams. We have high hopes of reaching the playoffs. After that, we'll see how things unfold," shared Diego Simeone.

📝 Clément Lenglet and Juan Musso, who spent last season at Atletico on loan, have signed permanent contracts with the club.

✅ The "Colchoneros" are heading into the tournament in optimal condition, with no players sidelined due to injury.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

PSG matches have been a showcase for goals. The over 2.5 goals bet has come through in six consecutive games involving the Parisians. Atletico have also ended the season with a flourish, netting four goals in three of their last four matches, so we can reasonably expect an exciting match. We anticipate seeing at least three goals scored.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Few would doubt that Luis Enrique's side will control the game. We expect them to dominate possession and create more chances, leading to a higher number of corners. Recall that their autumn head-to-head ended 6-0 in favor of Paris in this regard. Based on this, we are backing PSG to win on corners.

The favorite for this match, as well as the group, is clear-cut. Not much time has passed since the Champions League final – the same team that dismantled Inter will face Atlético. Diego Simeone is likely to abandon bold strategies and stick to his usual defensive approach. This worked in November, but Atlético had a stroke of luck, and PSG were not as formidable as they are now.

We believe a second miracle won't occur, and the stronger side on paper will prevail. We won't complicate the bet and simply suggest a PSG victory, with odds that are quite attractive. Another rout by the world's strongest team wouldn't surprise us, with a 4-1 scoreline being a very plausible outcome.