Portugal vs Spain Prediction 9 June 2025

🔊 Who will become the first-ever two-time winner of the UEFA Nations League? On June 8, Portugal and Spain, both previous champions, will clash in the final. The showdown is set to take place at the "Arena Munich." The Portuguese side edged out Germany with a 2-1 victory in the semifinals, while Spain triumphed over France in a thrilling 5-4 encounter. As for the pre-match dynamics, bookmakers are leaning towards the reigning European champions. However, Roberto Martinez's team were underdogs in the previous round as well, yet they delivered an impressive performance, sending Germany to compete for bronze. Here’s our prediction for the final, highlighting several promising bets.

Interesting Facts

• Portugal were the inaugural winners of the UEFA Nations League, while Spain are the most recent champions. Notably, this is Portugal's first final appearance since 2019, whereas Spain have reached their third consecutive final.
• Cristiano Ronaldo (40 years and 4 months) is the oldest player in the Nations League's "Final Four," while Lamine Yamal (17 years and 11 months) is the youngest. The age gap between these star players of the finalists is nearly 23 years!
• Roberto Martinez has claimed just one major trophy in his managerial career—the FA Cup with Wigan in 2013. In contrast, Luis de la Fuente has secured European Championship victories with Spanish teams across all age groups and led Spain to a Nations League triumph after taking charge just before the playoffs.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams share a rich history of head-to-head clashes, with the Spaniards emerging as the dominant force, at least when considering encounters in the 21st century. Portugal triumphed on home soil during the 2004 European Championship but has not defeated "La Furia Roja" in official matches since.

Spain knocked out the "European Brazilians" at the World Cup in South Africa (1-0) and Euro 2012 (0-0; 4-2 on penalties), eventually winning both tournaments. At the World Cup in Russia, the teams played to a thrilling 3-3 draw, highlighted by a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick. Their most recent duels took place during the group stage of the previous Nations League edition. The Spaniards proved superior (1-1; 1-0), edging out the Portuguese by a single point and then going on to claim the trophy.

Portugal Team Overview

🔴 Let's recall that Portugal breezed through a fairly tough group featuring Croatia, Scotland, and Poland. There was little competition for the top spot, as Roberto Martinez's squad secured it with a comfortable six-point lead. Their first real challenge came in the quarter-finals, where they lost an away match to Denmark (0-1). Back home, the Portuguese delivered a resounding victory (5-2), although two of those goals came in extra time.

🟢 Few believed Portugal would make it to the final, but Ronaldo and company proved the skeptics wrong. In the semi-final against the tournament hosts, they showed resilience, even after conceding first. Portugal turned the game around in a matter of minutes, scoring in the 63rd and 68th minutes. Key figures off the bench were Vitinha and Francisco Conceição. Vitinha took control of the midfield, while Conceição sparked the comeback with a stunning long-range strike after a solo run. The captain sealed the victory by finishing off a beautiful move initiated by Nuno Mendes and Bruno Fernandes. It's worth noting that Roberto Martinez's protégés could and should have scored more, as evidenced by their expected goals (xG) statistic of 2.44.

Spain Team Overview

🔴 Spain are on a remarkable run, unbeaten in 24 consecutive official matches. This streak has given the team an aura of invincibility, although they do offer their opponents some opportunities. In the Nations League group stage, they slipped up just once, but in the quarterfinals, La Furia Roja couldn't secure a win over the Netherlands in regular time (2-2; 3-3), despite leading in both matches. They had to advance to the semifinals through a penalty shootout (5-4).

🟡 Fans were on edge again in the recent semifinal, even though there was no sign of trouble initially. Spain struck twice in the first half and repeated the feat early in the second. They led 4-0, and after conceding a goal, they extended their lead back to four with a brace from Lamine Yamal. However, something faltered towards the end of the match. La Furia Roja relaxed, almost allowing Les Bleus to pull off the unthinkable. Had the French had a bit more time, we might have seen extra time. But history doesn't deal in hypotheticals, so we note that Luis de la Fuente's team are in yet another final.

Latest news

Portugal

🎙 Roberto Martinez on the match against Germany: “We should celebrate such a victory – it’s been years since we last defeated Germany. Tactically, we were outstanding, and our commitment made the difference. It was a team victory. There are many things you need to execute well if you want to compete on equal terms with Germany. We could have controlled possession more, the space was there, but we didn’t always find it in the best way. However, we contained the Germans on the flanks, remained composed on counterattacks, and demonstrated mental resilience. For the German team, this was a very challenging game. They probably struggled with what we were trying to create.”

🎙 Francisco Conceição, named the best player of the semifinal: “I’m very proud of what happened, especially since my goal helped us win. I’ve watched my father’s goals many times. I know the last time we beat Germany was 25 years ago when my father scored a hat-trick.”

🎙 “We played a good match, especially defensively. We knew what to do in tough moments. They have many great players who handle the ball well and seek open spaces. But we handled it excellently and responded with counterattacks. We scored two goals, though we could have scored more,” stated defender Nuno Mendes.

✅ It’s worth noting that the Portuguese squad has no personnel issues. All players called up for the current camp are ready to take the field in the final. The only significant absentee from the squad is the injured Joao Cancelo. 

Spain

🎙 Luis de la Fuente on reaching the final: "I'm very pleased. I have to admit, a certain level of struggle brings me joy. I can't imagine sports without the element of hardship. When two great teams face off, as they did today, it's natural for both to make the most of their chances. We must learn from every match and view the game in a positive light. It's incredibly challenging to reach the final, and the key to this team is their hunger for victory. The guys want more: to fight and win."

🎙 "Ronaldo is a legend, and I have a lot of respect for him, but I'll focus on my job and try to win on Sunday. We're in for a special match—a final against a fantastic team. That gives us extra motivation. I want to prove myself in games like these. And I want to claim another title," said Lamine Yamal, who was named MVP in the match against France.

🎙 Mikel Merino shared his thoughts: "We didn't expect it at 5-1. But at the elite level, you can never take anything for granted. We're proud of our current squad. Another final is ahead, and we're ready to fight for another title."

✅ It's crucial that the Spanish squad also heads into the big match with their best lineup. They emerged from the semifinals without any injuries. However, it's worth noting that for various reasons, Rodri, Dani Carvajal, Ferran Torres, and Ayoze Perez were not called up to the national team. 

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

A Swiss officiating team, led by Sandro Schärer, will oversee the final. Schärer has managed three matches in the current Nations League campaign, establishing himself as a relatively lenient referee—averaging just 2 yellow cards per game and no red cards. However, if we consider his last ten matches across all competitions, the numbers are more substantial—averaging 3.8 warnings and 0.2 dismissals per match.

Both semifinals saw more than 4.5 yellow cards, and we believe this trend will continue. Emotions will run high among the players. While we hope it doesn't escalate to brawls, confrontations and rough fouls seem inevitable. We anticipate Sandro Schärer will exceed his usual quota of yellow cards. Interestingly, matches involving the Spanish team this Nations League season have averaged exactly 5 yellow cards, which bolsters our confidence in this prediction.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

When considering a bet on goals, we suggest focusing on the second half, where intriguing trends emerge: Portugal have conceded after the break in their last five matches, while Spain have scored in the second half in eight consecutive games. Regardless of how the final unfolds, we believe "La Furia Roja" will find the net again in the second 45 minutes. If they're trailing, they'll likely equalize by pressing Portugal into their penalty area; if they're ahead, they'll punish their opponents on the counterattack. Our pick is Spain to score in the 2nd half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Both teams rank among the top five in the tournament for corners won. Portugal average 6.8 per game, while Spain average 5.3. Naturally, the total number of corners in their matches is high—12.1 and 9.2 respectively. Based on this data and our expectations for the final, we recommend considering over 9.5 total corners.

As we wrap up, let's focus on the duels that could be pivotal in the upcoming final. First up is Pedri against Vitinha. Much, if not everything, will hinge on the midfield, and these two will be central to the action there. The second key battle is even more evident—Nuno Mendes versus Lamine Yamal. The world's best left-back against the top winger—the winner of this clash will significantly boost their team's chances for the trophy.

Looking at the overall match picture, Spain's territorial dominance seems apparent unless an early goal throws a wrench in the works. There's a chance of that happening, but even if it doesn't, we expect a high-scoring game. There are questions about both teams' defensive play, but the attacking stars are bound to find and convert their opportunities.

Given all this, we're anticipating a match with plenty of goals and are betting on over 2.5 goals, which has hit in Spain's last six matches in a row. It would be fitting if a final with such a marquee billing doesn't end in regular time, so as a precise score option, Scores24 suggests a 2-2 draw.