Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction 25 May 2025

🔊 Can the "Glorious" thwart Vicente Moreno's squad from securing a spot in European competitions? Saturday's La Liga action will feature an intriguing clash between Alavés and Osasuna at the Mendizorroza Stadium. Unlike the club from Vitoria-Gasteiz, the "Reds" have no tournament motivation as they've already achieved their season objectives. Despite being the visitors, bookmakers are predicting an Osasuna victory, with odds set at 2.4.

Head-to-Head

📊 Interestingly, Alaves last defeated Osasuna in an official match during the 2015/16 Segunda Division campaign with a 3-0 victory. In the first round of the current season, the teams played to a 2-2 draw in Pamplona. On that occasion, Kike Garcia's brace was answered by goals from Ante Budimir and Rudi Garcia. Let's take a look at the outcomes over their last 10 head-to-head encounters in La Liga: Osasuna have secured 8 wins, there have been 2 draws, and Alaves have yet to claim a victory.

Deportivo Alaves Team Overview

🔵 Victories over Valencia (1-0) and Valladolid (1-0) in recent rounds have secured Alaves' place in the top division. With no pressure on Eduardo Coudet's squad now, it's interesting to note that in their home games, "Los Gloriosos" rarely find the net, averaging just 0.72 goals per game (ranking 19th in the league). Not once in 2025 have Alaves managed to score more than one goal per game at home. Sometimes, their excessive caution diminishes their attacking threat in the opponent's penalty area.

❗ The main threat from Alaves comes from Kike Garcia. The 35-year-old forward is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, having broken his personal scoring record in La Liga with 13 goals in 34 matches. It was his converted penalty in the last round that helped "Los Gloriosos" retain their place in La Liga. However, his xG (10.53) indicates an unusually high goal tally. The Spaniard's contract with Alaves expires at the end of this season, and it's still unclear whether Garcia is willing to stay in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Osasuna Team Overview

🔴 Osasuna are still in the hunt for European competition spots. Currently, the "Reds" trail Rayo Vallecano for the 8th position only on tiebreakers. It's worth noting that the team from Pamplona has faltered just once in their last 9 matches, a setback against Villarreal (2-4). However, Osasuna's away form raises significant concerns among fans, with just 15 points collected from 18 games (17th in the league). In 2025, they've secured only one away victory in La Liga, against a struggling Valladolid (3-2).

❗ The undisputed leader of Osasuna is Ante Budimir. This season has been the most prolific in the Croatian striker's career, with 21 goals and 4 assists in 37 league matches. This accounts for approximately 45% of the "Reds'" total goals in La Liga. Looking at his xG, it stands at 20.32. Finally, the 33-year-old averages about 2.93 shots per game, the best in the club among players with at least 1,000 minutes on the pitch.

Latest news

Deportivo Alaves

❌ Among the unavailable players for Alaves' upcoming match, Abdel Abqar (hamstring injury) and Moussa Diarra (broken nose) stand out. Both players are crucial figures in Eduardo Coudet's tactical setup.

Osasuna

🎙 Vicente Moreno reflected on the 2-0 victory over Espanyol: “In the first half, we played well. We had some issues with ball control. Had we been more precise, we could have scored a second goal. However, Espanyol played better in the second half. Right now, we're just a step away from qualifying for European competitions. Our team will give everything to succeed at Mendizorroza next week. Whatever happens, we must appreciate what the team has achieved this season and the fans who helped us win today and have continuously supported us through tough times. This year, we've shown fantastic efficiency at our home stadium, and that reassures me as a coach.”

❌ Kike Barja's participation in the upcoming match remains doubtful. The Spanish forward picked up an injury in the recent game against Espanyol (2-0).

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

Alavés and Osasuna's head-to-head encounters typically see around 5.6 yellow cards. Let's take a look at the average number of cautions each team accumulates this season: Alavés average 5.6, while Osasuna average 4.5. The intensity of Osasuna's push for European competition is likely to increase the number of rough fouls. Our editorial choice is over 4.5 total yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

In Alavés' last nine matches, no more than two goals have been scored. It's also worth noting that Alavés struggle with scoring in their home fixtures. A similar trend is observed in 4 out of Osasuna's last 5 matches. Moreover, Osasuna's disappointing away performance and low goal tally cannot be ignored. Our editorial choice is under 2.5 total goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings, there have been no more than 10 corners. Both teams are quite pragmatic in their attacking approach and are unlikely to open up prematurely by deploying players in wide positions on the flanks. The optimal choice is under 10.5 total corners.

Osasuna have been dominant in their head-to-head matchups with Alaves, and right now, a victory is crucial for them. In the final matchday, the motivation factor is significant, especially when a team is fighting for European competition spots. Our main pick is Osasuna to win with a handicap (0).