Champions League: Who will be eliminated - Man City or PSG?

Posted Thursday, December 12, 2024 by ESPN

Matchday six of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League is in the books as we enter the business end of the league phase and the 36-team table continues to take shape.

Manchester City's loss to Juventus leaves Pep Guardiola's chances of staying in the competition on a knife-edge, while Arsenal and Liverpool added to their claims as the continent's best this season.

Elsewhere, there were some wonder-strikes from the like of Michael Olise, Julian Alvarez and Jhon Duran -- but which was the best?

ESPN writers Gab Marcotti, Sam Marsden and Julien Laurens reflect on some of the burning questions after six rounds.

1. It's do or die for Man City and PSG now. Which team do you favor more to go into the knockouts (through playoffs or top eight finish)?

Marcotti: I don't think PSG can mathematically get into the top eight. And it's going to be tricky for City as well. Obviously, PSG vs. Man City in the next round is going to be HUGE. I think the stakes are a little higher for PSG though, because their final game is away to VfB Stuttgart, who are not the easiest team to play on the road. So it's more of a "can't lose" game for them than it is for City. Crazy as it sounds, City could lose and still control their destiny as they play Club Brugge in the final game at the Etihad. That said, PSG are in far better form right now.

Laurens: I think both of them will finish in the top 24 and qualify for the playoffs. As I see it, they will draw with each other then both win their final game to finish with 12 points for the English champions and 11 for the French ones. That was not the plan at the start of the competition -- as the objective was obviously the top eight -- but both City and PSG will still be in it. This league phase has been a rollercoaster for them with a lot of drama, controversy, ups and downs. It has added a lot of entertainment to the campaign (except for Paris and for City fans) and a lot of pressure on coaches Guardiola and Luis Enrique. Which is also why we like this competition so much.

Marsden: Neither will finish in the top eight, but I also don't think either team will go out. PSG have the advantage of playing City at home and, domestically at least, are in much better form than Guardiola's team. If PSG really had to win at Stuttgart in their final game, I think they would pull it off, too. That said, with a point less than City and two tough games to come, they are under the biggest threat of a humiliating knockout stage exit. City should be fine because they have Brugge at home in their final game -- 11 points will be just enough to finish in the top 24.

2. Liverpool continued their perfect run. Are they primed to lift the title this year? Why or why not?

Marcotti: Obviously it's early in the season and there's always stuff that can go wrong. I think Liverpool boss Arne Slot has been exceptional this year in so many ways. The expiring contracts haven't been a distraction thus far and I don't think they will become one. My biggest concern is how the squad handles being in a Premier League title race and going deep in the Champions League as well. It's not straight-forward. He has the squad to rotate and you're seeing more of it recently, but it's not easy to do effectively. That's one of thing which, I think, he'll need to do if they are to win the title. The other thing is to keep Ryan Gravenberch fit and productive all season long (or, alternatively, find somebody else who can do what he does). Other than Mohamed Salah, he's probably Liverpool's most important player simply because there is no obvious replacement.

Laurens: Right now, they have been the best team in the competition, finding solutions against all their opponents and finding ways of winning without always playing great. Their masterclass was against the current holders, Real Madrid, when they outplayed them at Anfield on matchday five. But there is a long way to go still and in the knockout stages anything is possible. All the big teams will get better, Liverpool included, which makes this Champions League campaign really unpredictable.

Marsden: Liverpool are one of several sides that could win the competition, but their perfect league phase will not mean anything come March. Everything has gone so smoothly so far for Slot, but he will have to manage setbacks at some point if his side is to compete on various fronts. How would he cope without Salah, who has been directly involved in 28 of Liverpool's 50 goals this season? Teams will also begin to find ways to play against his side, as Girona, despite losing, did this week. Slot admitted Liverpool were "outplayed" at times and said he was "far from pleased with the performance." The challenge now is to keep the levels as high as they have been so far.