World Cup quarter-final predictions: England to beat France in extra time while Portugal to overcome Morocco

The World Cup quarter-finals continue on Saturday as Portugal face Morocco before England take on France; Jones Knows is back with predictions and thinks England and Portugal will both win their last-eight ties to set up a mouth-watering semi-final

Posted Saturday, December 10, 2022 by Skysports.com

Pepe scored in Portugal's 6-1 last-16 win over Switzerland

The World Cup quarter-finals continue on Saturday and our tipster Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair to dig out some juicy betting angles.

Morocco vs Portugal, Saturday 3pm

Morocco's defensive numbers at this World Cup are nothing short of sensational. They have yet to concede a goal from an opposition player - their only goal shipped was a Nayef Aguerd own goal vs Canada. And when you consider they have played Croatia, Belgium and Spain over that sample size it's a ridiculous achievement made even more ridiculous by their expected goals against data that backs up their actual goals conceded output. In those three matches against the European giants, Morocco conceded an average of just 0.83 expected goals per match and just two shots on target - and that included an extra 30 minutes against Spain. If a team in the Premier League were putting up those sorts of numbers you'd be backing them for a top-four finish.

World Cup quarter-final predictions: England to beat France in extra time while Portugal to overcome Morocco

My worry for trusting them to give their true running in this encounter is the emotional and physical toll the win over Spain will have taken. Aguerd and Roman Saiss both suffered injuries in the penalty shootout win and losing that cohesion at the back for such an in-form defensive unit is a huge negative when playing such a dangerous side like Portugal, who looked a team reborn without the shackles of the overwhelming presence of Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch.

They were fast, fluid and clinical in their surprise 6-1 demolition job on Switzerland. If they repeat such attacking brilliance then a tired Morocco won't be able to cope. However, I never like to trust one run or performance in isolation. This one is certainly just a watching brief from a betting perspective with so many unknowns in terms of team news.

Portugal are fancied to make the semi-finals for prediction purposes.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

England vs France, Saturday 7pm

Even a cynical old goat like me is getting rather giddy over this fixture. A game of a lifetime, indeed.

France are yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament as their usual controlled and counter-punching style has been replaced by handbrake off football.

There are huge spaces that can be exploited when France relinquish possession, something the limited Poland attack found in the first half of France's last-16 win. They couldn't cash in.

England, with confidence flowing in their attacking players, absolutely can.

And up the other end you have a French front four that have produced explosive attacking metrics in the three games they've started together. Yes their opposition hasn't been up to much but to register a per-match average of 2.6 expected goals, 20 shots and three goals a game means we're dealing with a phenomenal attacking outfit, led by Kylian Mbappe.

World Cup quarter-final predictions: England to beat France in extra time while Portugal to overcome Morocco

England shouldn't fear France though - they possess talent that can match Mbappe's superpowers.

Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham are all genuine world-class talents, capable of career-defining performances and moments on this sort of stage. It's that strength across England's forward line that gives them the clear edge the longer this game goes on.

Gareth Southgate has significant armoury to use from his bench in Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish and Raheem Sterling and as we saw when the France reserves were given a chance against Tunisia, Didier Deschamps has little quality to turn to in order to freshen things up. With this in mind, England to win in extra time at 11/1 with Sky Bet and England to win from behind at 14/1 (90 minutes only) certainly stand out at the prices.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 (England to win in extra time) | BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals