Pep Guardiola bidding to avoid unwanted record in Man City's tricky Tottenham fixture - 7M sport

Pep Guardiola bidding to avoid unwanted record in Man City's tricky Tottenham fixture



Posted Sunday, August 15, 2021 by manchestereveningnews

Pep Guardiola bidding to avoid unwanted record in Man City's tricky Tottenham fixture

Despite last weekend’s disappointing 1-0 defeat in the Community Shield, confidence is high in the Manchester City camp as the club embark on the brand new Premier League season.

The champions start their title defence away at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday in a blockbuster fixture which could see new record signing Jack Grealish perhaps handed his first league start for the Blues.

Following Sunday’s encounter, Pep Guardiola’s men will then face Norwich and Arsenal before playing Leceister, Southampton, Chelsea and Liverpool after the international break, making it a tough run of initial fixtures to kick start their campaign.

They’ll therefore be eager to get three points on the board quickly in this weekend’s opening clash, however, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for City in recent times, meaning a positive result is far from a forgone conclusion.

City have suffered defeat in each of their previous three trips to Tottenham - twice in the Premier League, once in the Champions League - and failed to score a single goal on each occasion.

Remarkably as a result, another defeat on Sunday would hand Guardiola his first-ever sequence of four consecutive competitive away losses to one opponent.

Three consecutive losses in this fixture does point to a problematic trend, but pinpointing the cause is difficult. Spurs have changed managers in that time and been on the losing end against City in fixtures at both the Etihad and at Wembley.

This therefore wouldn’t suggest that they’ve then somehow sussed Guardiola’s Achilles heel, but the results obtained would highlight that there’s been an issue, so what is it and should fans be concerned heading into Sunday?

Well, looking at the underlying performance indicators from those three matches, City’s biggest problem looks to have simply been a large slice of bad luck.

The closest competitive fixture of the three came back when the two sides clashed in the Champions League back in the 2018/19 campaign.

Although City enjoyed more of the ball (60 per cent), as is often the case, they were slightly outshot by their hosts who had 12 shots at goal, four of which hit the target. City had a total of 10, only two of which tested the keeper.

Despite that though, City still finished with the highest Expected Goal (xG) total at 2.01 compared to Spurs’ 1.45, indicating the Blues’ chances were slightly better in terms of quality.

However, in the two Premier League clashes since, City were by far the more domineering side. Across both matches, they accumulated 35 shots, nine of which hit the target, generating a combined xG of 4.06.

Spurs in response managed a combined total of seven shots, with five hitting the target (and an xG of just 0.86), but somehow still managed to score four goals. That works out at a conversion rate of 71 per cent.

Obviously, Spurs fans and pundits alike would argue that being clinical is all that matters, which in one sense is true. However, the reality is that converting at such a rate is a rare, and not something that can be sustained, even with elite finishers such as Son Heung-min and Harry Kane.

This point is captured by the fact that the most clinical side last season in the Premier League was ironically Tottenham, with a conversion rate of just 14 per cent.

Now the difference is that was of course over a long full season period, as opposed to one-off matches in which anomalies can take place.

Yet the truth is, City have done most things right in the recent meetings with Spurs, and have just been unfortunate that their chances haven’t found the back of the net, whilst Tottenham’s did.

Whilst not impossible, it’s highly unlikely they’d find themselves on the losing side once again should the fixture play out similarly to how it has in their two most recent encounters. For that reason, City fans should be confident of kickstarting their campaign with a big win.



Attention: Third parties may advertise their products and/or services on our website.7M does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of their contents.
Your dealings with such third parties are solely between you and such third parties and we shall not be liable in any way for any loss or damage of any sort incurred by you.